J13.3 Understanding Hydroclimatological Controls on Predictability of Zika Virus in Continental US

Tuesday, 24 January 2017: 9:00 AM
Conference Center: Tahoma 5 (Washington State Convention Center )
Antar Jutla, West Virginia Univ., Morgantown, WV; and M. usmani, R. sharma, L. Lin, and R. Colwell

Since the first case of Zika Virus (ZIKV) in Uganda in 1947, the disease has been reported in several regions of the globe. The etiological pathways of interaction of ZIKV with human population is largely unknown, primarily due to the fact that the disease was contained within Africa with relatively low incidence reported worldwide. Recent outbreak of ZIKV in northeastern coastal region of Brazil in 2015 has prompted calls for increased scrutiny to understand mechanisms of trigger and transmission potential of the disease in the USA.  ZIKV has been associated with Aedes mosquitoes but ecological and microbiological understanding of the virus is still emerging. Using hydroclimatological data from several satellites, this study will provide insights on how disease triggers in a particular region. We have tracked almost all ZIKV outbreaks since 1947 using satellite data on temperature, precipitation and land cover to reach to conclusion that a comparatively drier conditions supported the disease outbreak. We will also discuss and identify time lag between key hydrological variables, that may provide conducive environment for growth of ZIKV. Thereafter, we will also show predictive risk maps on spatial and temporal spread of this infection in the continental USA.
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