The Effectiveness of Using Total Lightning for Severe Weather Prediction with an Expanding Lightning Detection Network

Since 2009, the Earth Networks Total Lightning Network (ENTLN) has been used to track the properties of storms cells, such as the lightning flash rate, cell direction and speed as a basis for issuing alerts for thunderstorms that could have potential for severe weather.  From this storm cell data, Earth Networks produces the Earth Networks Dangerous Thunderstorm Alert (ENDTA).  The alert is a short-fused, polygon which is automatically generated by the total lightning cell tracking system and pushed to Earth Network clients and within the company’s WeatherBug web properties. Previous studies have shown these alert polygons can add an average of 50% more lead time for severe weather events and are an effective tool for predicting severe weather.

In this poster, a full set of statistics for 2015 are generated using 2015 CONUS ENDTA, NWS alert and storm report data.  Comparisons are made between validations statistics from previous years and NWS short-fused, severe weather alerts.  The study will compare POD, FAR and lead time statistics as it relates to the alerts issued by Earth Networks and the National Weather Service (NWS).  Comparison methods use the same process from early studies – using NWS storm reports and warnings as the basis for validations and lead time comparisons. The statistics are compared across time and geography and consider changes in ENTLN detection efficiency.