Providing an Impact-Based Two Week Outlook to the State of Texas

With respect to providing weather and climate forecasts, bridging the gap between the week 1 and week 2 time frames has proven to be a challenge, particularly when it comes to conveying potential impacts and confidence.  However, the benefits of providing impact-based forecasts up to two weeks with associated confidence levels are potentially substantial for Emergency Managers and other decision makers that rely on weather forecasts for resource management.

Beginning in 2016, the NWS Southern Region Regional Operations Center (SR ROC) began providing a 2-week weather assessment to the Texas Department of Emergency Management and the Texas A&M Forest Service to aid their planning and general situational awareness.  The 2-week assessment is broken down into a week 1 assessment that communicates the potential impacts associated with various hazards and a week 2 assessment that communicates the potential confidence that various hazards will occur within the state of Texas.

This presentation will provide a demonstration and explanation of the 2-week assessment that the SR ROC is delivering and discuss the key challenges and benefits associated with using this assessment as a tool for NWS core partners.