What is Our Approach to Determining the Observations Needed in Support of Earth System Prediction? (Invited Presentation)

Development of a comprehensive environmental prediction capability will require incorporation of additional components of the Earth System beyond the physical climate system. The core elements and expertise needed in this regard include atmospheric general circulation models, ocean circulation models, land surface models, interactive vegetation models, marine ecosystem models, atmospheric chemistry models, global carbon cycle models, assimilation techniques for atmosphere-ocean-land, population dynamics, crop models, and infectious disease models, to name a few. The challenge now is to bring these core elements together within a common infrastructure and with a central focus on sub-seasonal to decadal prediction of the Earth System in the broadest sense. However as with any prediction system, at a minimum,  the output is only as good as the input; i.e. the observations that are used for initialization, assimilation, forcing, and validation. For remotely-sensed observations we have the Decadal Survey for Earth Science and Applications from Space.  Yet, a prediction capability for the Earth System from global to regional scales will require observations across in situ, aircraft, space-based platforms and the full range of disciplines encompassed by Earth System Science. A major challenge confronting us is how best to synthesize and prioritize these seemingly disparate observations. In essence, what is the “trade space” within which this can happen?