The Discriminant Analysis Flare Forecasting System (DAFFS): A Recent Commercial-Sector Advances in Predicting Solar Energetic Events

One of the sources of major space weather events as identified in the Space Weather Action Plan (SWAP) is the major solar energetic event.  The sudden increase in ionizing radiation and the oft-accompanying rise in high-energy particle flux can have immediate impacts on sensitive space-based electronics and the Earth's ionosphere, with consequences on navigation and communication.  The physics of the processes thus require true "forecasting" for these impactful, yet statistically rare, solar phenomena.  Both the US NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center and US Air Force routinely produce forecasts for solar flares and energetic particle events for their customers; both agencies also recently identified the need for improved forecasting tools and capability through Small Business Innovative Research (SBIR) Topics.  In this paper I will review the answer to these calls by NorthWest Research Associates (NWRA) and the prototype Discriminant Analysis Flare Forecasting System (DAFFS) developed under the SBIR program -- in particular its capabilities as measured by cooperatively-established performance metrics.  The DAFFS development story, with its origins in federally-funded pure research and growth through the SBIR program, demonstrates the potential for commercial-sector research-to-operations contributions to SWAP, in particular to the SWAP Goal 5, "Improve Space-Weather Services through Advancing Understanding and Forecasting", and its relevant sub-goals.