Nowcast and Short-Term Forecast of Solar Radiation and PV Power Using Third Generation Geostationary Satellite.

The third generation geostationary satellite (GOES-R, HIMAWARI-8) provides detail observation of 16 channels and high temporal resolution scanning for rapid changing atmospheric phenomena. In this study, we developed the high speed and accurate algorithm for shortwave (SW) radiation budget and it's applied to geostationary satellite for rapid analysis. Clouds can cool the Earth by reflecting solar radiation but also maintain warmth by absorbing and emitting terrestrial radiation. Furthermore, clouds play important roles in the energy balance at the Earth’s surface and at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) and have complex connections to the Earth system and feedback processes. Therefor, estimation of radiation budget based on observation is important for better understanding of climate. Developed algorithm is already applied to quasi-real time analysis synchronous to geostationary satellite observation (HIMAWARI-8). It enabled NOWCAST of solar radiation and photo voltaic (PV) power generation. Additionally, we developed short-term forecast algorithm based on Atmospheric motion vector (AMV) analysis. It provides ensemble forecast of solar energy.