Heatwaves, which cause significant increases in average daily mortality of a region, pose a serious and growing public health risk, particularly in the context of anthropogenic climate change. Despite net winter mortality currently exceeding that of summer, due to rising global average temperatures, declines in cold-related mortality may be unable to compensate for increases in heat-related mortality. This study uses temperature, dew point, and mortality data from 1987 to 2000 in New York City to develop a model predicting daily temperature-related mortality anomalies and project how climate change may affect daily mortality throughout the years. Our model was run on seven general circulation models from the years 2020-2080; an analysis of our projections show a significant overall increase in annual temperature-related mortality, suggesting an urgent need to address the risk of extreme heat through changes in infrastructure, emergency response plans, human behavior, and increased public awareness.
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