Sunday, 22 January 2017
4E (Washington State Convention Center )
Modern ensemble forecasting is blazing a new trail for weather forecasting by combining the latest in computational physics with statistical analysis. It gives forecasters the means to produce a probabilistic forecast for any number of variables. While the accuracy of numerical modeling has continued to increase with respect to 500 millibar heights, the accuracy of the Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) has not seen the same increase. Overall, the last decade has seen a continual increase in computing power for weather models. Coupled with this there are better physics schemes, data assimilation, terrain resolution incorporated into a numerical model run, and statistical and climatological techniques to help improve forecasts. With this increase in computational power, QPF accuracy should be increasing, but the exact nature of how and why QPF forecasting is trending relative to 500 millibar height is unknown and needs further investigation.
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