A Novel Approach for Assessing the Impact of Atmospheric Stability on Vertical Wind Profile Evolution During PECAN Low-Level Jet Events

To mitigate anthropogenic climate change and limit global temperature rise below 2 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, decarbonization of the electricity sector, the largest single source of global greenhouse gas emissions, is required. The development of wind energy resources for clean electricity is rapidly growing in the United States, with projections of achieving 20% of wind derived electricity by 2030, including 202GW and 22GW of onshore and offshore wind respectively. Successful deployment of such technologies requires accurate prediction of the vertical wind speed profile shape (VWP) prior to wind farm construction and near real-time prediction post construction for balancing the electricity grid. Unfortunately, significant uncertainties in VWP prediction may exist, due in-part to limited atmospheric measurements throughout a turbine’s rotor-layer (~40-200m) and a limited understanding of the physical processes driving VWP shape variability. In particular, better prediction of the development of Low-Level Jet (LLJ) wind phenomena, both onshore and offshore, is needed given the potential significant impact on turbine power performance. To better understand such processes, this research uses a novel methodology to classify VWP shapes and investigates relationships with atmospheric stability, the principal driver of wind profile behavior. A case study assessing the evolution of a LLJ during the June-July 2015 PECAN campaign in the Great Plains is presented.