S76 Spatial Analysis of 10 Meter Wind Errors in East Coast Winter Storms

Sunday, 22 January 2017
4E (Washington State Convention Center )
Mussie Kebede, NCAS, Alexandria, VA; and M. Weldegaber and V. Morris

Extratropical Cyclones are powerful weather systems that cost the United States millions of dollars in damages, annually. These cyclones traditionally have two frontal systems (cold and warm) attached to a centralized core of low pressure. They acquire their energy, mainly, through temperature differences on land and sea.  These storms are often forecasted well ahead of time with possible time dependent variables plotted out on maps. These variables are created by numerical models, which take any number of initial conditions, and generate predictions for temperature, wind, intensity, etc.

It is known that predicting wind speeds becomes increasingly difficult the lower you descend into the atmosphere due to friction caused by canopy, orographic effects and man made structures. The goal for this project is to spatially analyze regions along the east coast where 10 meter winds were most difficult to predict. This study will be effective in understanding which models perform best where, and which could use improvement.

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