Session 14B Drought Analysis and Prediction, Part III

Thursday, 26 January 2017: 3:30 PM-5:00 PM
602 (Washington State Convention Center )
Host: 31st Conference on Hydrology
Joshua K. Roundy, Univ. of Kansas, Department of Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering, Lawrence, KS; Michael Hobbins, CIRES, Boulder, CO; Eric F. Wood, Princeton Univ., Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton, NJ and Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Univ. of California, Geography, Los Angeles, CA

Drought is a multi-faceted phenomenon that challenges our current prediction capabilities. Taking drought prediction and hydrological applications to the next level requires advances in understanding, monitoring, communications and water resources management. Specific topics addressed by presenters could include but are not limited to: Current drought prediction science and skill at various lead times; innovative management uses of that science; and case studies illustrating advances in understanding, monitoring and prediction of drought and drought impacts. Further, papers addressing gaps and deficiencies in our current methods for predicting droughts and estimating its effects on vegetation, water resources, and human populations are also invited.

3:30 PM
3:45 PM
Uncertainty Analysis of Drought in the Community Atmosphere Model
Gemma Anderson, LLNL, Livermore, CA; and C. Bonfils, D. D. Lucas, and B. D. Santer
4:15 PM
Optimal drought forecasts from a multi-model framework
Joshua K. Roundy, Univ. of Kansas, Lawrence, KS; and G. Roth
4:45 PM
An Empirical Method to Generate Probabilistic Drought Intensification Forecasts over Sub-Seasonal Time Scales
Jason Otkin, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and D. J. Lorenz, M. D. Svoboda, M. C. Anderson, C. Hain, and Y. Zhong
- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner