Measurement needs and challenges in support of forecasting in the urban zone

The U.S. Weather Research Program convenes expert working groups on a one-time basis to identify critical research needs in various problem areas. The two most recent expert working groups were charged to identify and delineate critical meteorological research issues related to the weather prediction in the urban zone and air quality forecasting. In this context, “prediction” is denoted as “forecasting” and includes the depiction and communication of the present meteorological and chemical state of the atmosphere, extrapolation or nowcasting, and numerical prediction and evolution on time scales up to several days. Emphasis is on weather and the meteorological aspects of air quality.

The recommendations of the teams emphasize that human life and well-being in urban areas can be protected and enjoyed to a significantly greater degree. In particular, the two groups emphasized the need for 1) improved access to real-time weather information, 2) improved tailoring of weather data to the specific needs of individual user groups, and 3) more user-specific forecasts of weather and air quality. Specific recommendations fall within multiple thematic areas: 1) focused research on the impacts of visibility and icing on transportation; 2) improved understanding and forecasting of winter storms; 3) improved understanding and forecasting of convective storms; 4) improved forecasting of intense/severe lightning; 5) further research into the impacts of large urban areas on the location and intensity of urban convection; 6) focused research on the application of mesoscale forecasting in support of emergency response and air quality; 7) quantification and reduction of uncertainty in hydrological, meteorological, and air quality modeling; and 8) the need for improved observing systems. An overarching recommendation is that research into understanding and predicting weather and air quality impacts in urban areas should receive increased emphasis by the atmospheric science community at large, and that urban weather and air quality forecasting should be a focal point of the U.S. Weather Research Program. Special emphasis of the presentation will be on the measurement needs and challenges in support of improved weather and air quality forecasting in the urban zone.