Extended Abstract (24K)7.4
An Integrated Forecasting System for Ozone Predictions in Tennessee
Qi Mao, Tennessee Valley Authority, Muscle Shoals, AL; and S. F. Mueller
The Tennessee Valley Authority developed an integrated ozone forecasting system prior to the 2001 ozone season. It was built upon a regional spectral model (RSM), two multivariate regression models, and a real-time ozone monitoring network. The RSM was run in-house once a day to provide 48-hour weather forecasts over the southeast U. S. Two regression models, one applicable to the whole spectrum of observed ozone values and termed as Model-L, the other applicable only to ozone concentrations greater than 75 ppb and specified as Model-H, were established based on two years of historical ozone records and RSM outputs for Middle Tennessee surrounding the Nashville metropolitan area and East Tennessee surrounding the Tri-Cities area. The maximum 8-hour average ozone concentrations from sixteen monitoring sites of the two areas were used in developing the regression models. This integrated system was operated by a TVA ozone forecasting team in conjunction with the state air pollution department of Tennessee during the 2001 ozone season. This paper presents results of the 2001 ozone forecasts for Middle and East Tennessee, with the focus on forecast evaluations and areas for future improvements.
Session 7, integrated modeling/measurement systems for emissions and air quality predictions (Parallel with Joint Sessions J3 & J4)
Thursday, 23 May 2002, 9:00 AM-12:57 PM
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