25th Agricultural and Forest Meteorology/12th Air Pollution/4th Urban Environment

Wednesday, 22 May 2002: 11:15 AM
The Use of Concentration Fluctuation Variance Predictions in Model Evaluation
R. Ian Sykes, Titan Research and Technology, Princeton, NJ
Uncertainty in the transporting wind field is a major contributor to the uncertainty in an atmospheric dispersion prediction; the wind uncertainties include both turbulent velocity fluctuations and measurement/observational limitations. This makes comparison between dispersion model predictions and observed concentration values a difficult task, since we may not know how accurately a prediction can be made using a particular set of input data. Turbulence closure techniques provide a means of relating the wind field uncertainties to the dispersion prediction uncertainties, and therefore provide a basis for objectively characterizing a significant component of the overall model performance. The closure methodology and the requirements for use in model evaluation studies will be discussed.

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