19th Conf on Hydrology
16th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

J6.10

Dynamical Downscaling of Extended Weather Forecasts for Hydrologic Prediction in River Basins of the Western U.S.

Yun Qian, PNNL, Richland, WA; and L. R. Leung

Weather and climate forecasts are critical inputs to hydrologic forecasting systems. The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) issues 8-15 days outlook daily for the U.S. based on the Medium Range Forecast (MRF) model, which is a global model applied at about 2o spatial resolution. Because of the relatively coarse spatial resolution, weather forecasts produced by the MRF model cannot be applied directly to hydrologic forecasting models that require high spatial resolution to represent land surface hydrology. A mesoscale atmospheric model was used to dynamically downscale the 1-8 day extended global weather forecasts to test the feasibility of hydrologic forecasting through this model nesting approach. Atmospheric conditions of each 8-day forecast during the cool seasons in the period 1990-2000 were used to provide initial and boundary conditions for the mesoscale model to produce an 8-day atmospheric forecast for the western U.S. at 30 km spatial resolution. To examine the impact of initialization of the land surface state on forecast skill, two sets of simulations were performed with the land surface state initialized based on the global forecasts versus land surface conditions from a continuous mesoscale simulation driven by the NCEP reanalysis. Comparison of the skill of the global and downscaled precipitation forecasts in the western U.S. showed higher skill for the downscaled forecasts at all precipitation thresholds and increasingly larger differences at the larger thresholds. Analyses of the surface temperature forecasts show that the mesoscale forecasts generally reduced the root-mean-square error by about 1.5oC compared to the global forecasts, because of the much better resolved topography at 30 km spatial resolution. In addition, initialization of the land surface states can significantly improve the temperature forecasts, but not the precipitation forecasts during cool season in western U.S. The improvements in forecast skill using downscaling could be potentially significant for improving hydrologic forecasts for managing river basins. .

Joint Session 6, The Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) (Joint between the 19th conference on Hydrology and 16th Conference on Climate Variability and Change)
Thursday, 13 January 2005, 1:30 PM-5:16 PM

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