The Ed Lorenz Symposium (Expanded View)

* - Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting

Compact View of Conference

Thursday, 13 January 2005
8:30 AM-9:30 AM, Thursday
Session 1 Lorenz Symposium I
8:30 AM1.1Theories for eddy fluxes in the two-layer quasi-geostrophic model   wrf recording
Isaac M. Held, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ
9:00 AM1.2Waves, information and local predictability  
Joseph Tribbia, NCAR, Boulder, CO
9:45 AM-9:45 AM, Thursday
Poster Session 1 Lorenz Symposium Posters
 P1.1Value of the NWS/NCEP Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system for Quantifying Mesoscale Model Error  
Jeffery T. McQueen, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and J. Du, B. Zhou, G. DiMego, B. Ferrier, G. Manikin, E. Rogers, H. Juang, and Z. Toth
 P1.2Using numerical continuation to examine the predictability of the atmospheric boundary layer  
Richard T. McNider, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and M. Friedman, A. Biazar, and X. Shi
 P1.3Time-step sensitivity of nonlinear atmospheric models: numerical convergence, truncation error growth and ensemble design  
João Teixeira, UCAR Visiting Scientist, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. A. Reynolds and K. Judd
 P1.4The influence of rawinsonde observations on 3-7 day weather forecasts  
Sharanya J. Majumdar, RSMAS/University of Miami, Miami, FL
 P1.5Slow manifold and predictability  
V. Krishnamurthy, COLA, Calverton, MD
 P1.6Roots of ensemble forecasting  
John M. Lewis, NOAA/NSSL, Reno, NV, NV
 P1.7Quantifying observation impact with an adjoint-based procedure  
Rolf H. Langland, NRL, Monterey, CA
 P1.8Quantifying and reducing uncertainty by employing model error estimation methods  
Dusanka Zupanski, CIRA/Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO
 P1.9Predictability as gleaned from recent Eta Model results: can we still significantly increase synoptic-scale NWP skill out to several days?  
Fedor Mesinger, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC and UCAR, Camp Springs, MD
 P1.10Predictability—Who is the Main Player: IC or Model Physics Uncertainty?  
Jun Du, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and J. McQueen
 P1.11On the predictability of mesoscale convective systems  
David J. Stensrud, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and L. J. Wicker
 P1.12Non-Gaussian probability distributions: What are their implications for predictability?  
Philip Sura, NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO; and M. Newman, C. Penland, and P. Sardeshmukh
 P1.13Model Predictability – From Lorenz System to Operational Ocean/Atmospheric Models  
Peter C. Chu, NPS, Monterey, CA; and L. M. Ivanov
 P1.14Model error, attractors, and predictability  
Kevin Judd, University of Western Australia, Perth, Western Australi, Australia; and C. A. Reynolds and T. E. Rosmond
 P1.15Model diversities and their implication in multi-model ensembles  
Dingchen Hou, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth, Y. Zhu, and R. Wobus
 P1.16Maximum likelihood ensemble filter: exploiting dynamic localization of Lyapunov vectors  
Milija Zupanski, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and S. J. Fletcher, I. M. Navon, and B. Uzunoglu
P1.17Local Lagrangian and Eulerian available energetics in moist atmospheres  
Peter R. Bannon, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA
 P1.18Intercomparison of Global Research and Operational Forecasts  
Jennifer C. Roman, AFWA/DNXT, Offutt AFB, NE; and G. Miguez-Macho, L. A. Byerle, and J. Paegle
 P1.19Initial-time sensitivity of tropical cyclone track forecasts  
Melinda S. Peng, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. A. Reynolds
 P1.20Flow and Regime dependent mesoscale predictability  
Fuqing Zhang, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and C. Snyder and R. Rotunno
 P1.21Extratropical control of subtropical humidity: diagnosis using tracers of last saturation  
Joseph Galewsky, Columbia University, New York, NY; and A. H. Sobel and I. M. Held
 P1.22EOFs –myths, misconceptions and open problems  
Ian T Jolliffe, University of Reading, Cowes, Isle of Wight, United Kingdom
 P1.23Ensemble Data Assimilation with the NCEP GFS  
Jeffrey S. Whitaker, NOAA-CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; and T. M. Hamill
 P1.24Energy-conserving and Hamiltonian extensions of the Lorenz model  
Alexander Gluhovsky, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN
 P1.25Diagnosis of medium-range predictability enhancement associated with anomalous zonal flow over western North America during winter  
Lee A. Byerle, AWS, Papillion, NE; and J. Paegle
 P1.26Off-line sequential bias estimation experiments with a Lorenz model  
Joshua P. Hacker, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Snyder
 P1.27Available potential energy and its relatives  
Theodore G. Shepherd, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
P1.28Assessing Predictability using Linear Inverse Models  
Prashant D. Sardeshmukh, NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO; and M. Newman and C. Penland
 P1.29Another look at predictability in flows with many scales  
Chris Snyder, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. Rotunno, F. Zhang, and R. Morss
 P1.30A simple 2-dimensional chaotic rain gush model  
Stanley David Gedzelman, The City College of New York, New York, NY
 P1.31A priori identification of the inferior solutions in an ensemble of dynamical forecasts  
Wilbur Y. Chen, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD
 P1.32A dynamical system analysis of Lorenz's low order model of the general circulation  
Joy Romanski, Columbia University, New York, NY; and W. B. Rossow
 P1.33Singular vectors computed with a flow-dependent analysis error covariance norm  
Mark Buehner, MSC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and A. Zadra
11:15 AM-12:15 PM, Thursday
Session 2 Lorenz Symposium II
11:15 AM2.1Insight of the second kind: A 21st century view of Ed Lorenz's visions of predictability from the 1950's onward   wrf recording
Leonard Allen Smith, London School of Economics/ Pembroke College, Oxford, London, United Kingdom
11:45 AM2.2Have we reached the limit of weather predictability?   wrf recording
J. Shukla, George Mason Univ. and COLA, Calverton, MD
1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Thursday
Session 3 Lorenz Symposium III
1:30 PM3.1The general circulation of the atmosphere, revisited   wrf recording
Kevin E. Trenberth, NCAR, Boulder, CO
2:00 PM3.2Stochastic parametrisation in Earth-system models   wrf recording
Tim Palmer, ECMWF, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom
2:30 PM3.3On the formation of tropical cyclones: Sequential downscale and upscale interactions   wrf recording
Peter J. Webster, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and G. J. Holland and R. A. Houze
3:30 PM-5:30 PM, Thursday
Session 4 Lorenz Symposium IV
3:30 PM4.1Role of the annular modes in the atmospheric general circulation   wrf recording
John M. Wallace, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. W. J. Thompson
4:00 PM4.2Scaling in geostrophic flow   wrf recording
Harry L. Swinney, University of Texas, Austin, TX; and S. Jung
4:30 PM4.3Dynamical fundamentals: some recent advances  
ME McIntyre, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
5:00 PM4.4Some reflections on the theoretical predictability of climate  
Edward N. Lorenz, MIT, Camridge, MA
5:30 PM, Thursday
Conference Ends
6:00 PM, Thursday
Lorenz Symposium Banquet

Browse the complete program of The 85th AMS Annual Meeting