Program: The Ed Lorenz Symposium (85th AMS Annual Meeting)

The Ed Lorenz Symposium

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Thursday, 13 January 2005

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6:00 AM-6:00 AM: Thursday, 13 January 2005

THUR 13 JAN

8:30 AM-9:30 AM: Thursday, 13 January 2005

Lorenz Symposium I

Sponsor: The Ed Lorenz Symposium

Papers:

8:30 AM

1.1

Theories for eddy fluxes in the two-layer quasi-geostrophic model

Isaac M. Held, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ

Recorded presentation

9:00 AM

1.2

Waves, information and local predictability

Joseph Tribbia, NCAR, Boulder, CO

9:45 AM-9:45 AM: Thursday, 13 January 2005

Poster Session 1

Lorenz Symposium Posters

Sponsor: The Ed Lorenz Symposium

Papers:

P1.1

Value of the NWS/NCEP Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system for Quantifying Mesoscale Model Error

Jeffery T. McQueen, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and J. Du, B. Zhou, G. DiMego, B. Ferrier, G. Manikin, E. Rogers, H. Juang, and Z. Toth

P1.2

Using numerical continuation to examine the predictability of the atmospheric boundary layer

Richard T. McNider, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and M. Friedman, A. Biazar, and X. Shi

P1.3

Time-step sensitivity of nonlinear atmospheric models: numerical convergence, truncation error growth and ensemble design

João Teixeira, UCAR Visiting Scientist, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. A. Reynolds and K. Judd

P1.4

The influence of rawinsonde observations on 3-7 day weather forecasts

Sharanya J. Majumdar, RSMAS/University of Miami, Miami, FL

P1.5

Slow manifold and predictability

V. Krishnamurthy, COLA, Calverton, MD

P1.6

Roots of ensemble forecasting

John M. Lewis, NOAA/NSSL, Reno, NV, NV

P1.7

Quantifying observation impact with an adjoint-based procedure

Rolf H. Langland, NRL, Monterey, CA

P1.8

Quantifying and reducing uncertainty by employing model error estimation methods

Dusanka Zupanski, CIRA/Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO

P1.9

Predictability as gleaned from recent Eta Model results: can we still significantly increase synoptic-scale NWP skill out to several days?

Fedor Mesinger, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC and UCAR, Camp Springs, MD

P1.10

Predictability—Who is the Main Player: IC or Model Physics Uncertainty?

Jun Du, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and J. McQueen

P1.11

On the predictability of mesoscale convective systems

David J. Stensrud, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and L. J. Wicker

P1.12

Non-Gaussian probability distributions: What are their implications for predictability?

Philip Sura, NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO; and M. Newman, C. Penland, and P. Sardeshmukh

P1.13

Model Predictability – From Lorenz System to Operational Ocean/Atmospheric Models

Peter C. Chu, NPS, Monterey, CA; and L. M. Ivanov

P1.14

Model error, attractors, and predictability

Kevin Judd, University of Western Australia, Perth, Western Australi, Australia; and C. A. Reynolds and T. E. Rosmond

P1.15

Model diversities and their implication in multi-model ensembles

Dingchen Hou, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth, Y. Zhu, and R. Wobus

P1.16

Maximum likelihood ensemble filter: exploiting dynamic localization of Lyapunov vectors

Milija Zupanski, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and S. J. Fletcher, I. M. Navon, and B. Uzunoglu

P1.17

Local Lagrangian and Eulerian available energetics in moist atmospheres

P1.18

Intercomparison of Global Research and Operational Forecasts

Jennifer C. Roman, AFWA/DNXT, Offutt AFB, NE; and G. Miguez-Macho, L. A. Byerle, and J. Paegle

P1.19

Initial-time sensitivity of tropical cyclone track forecasts

Melinda S. Peng, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. A. Reynolds

P1.20

Flow and Regime dependent mesoscale predictability

Fuqing Zhang, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and C. Snyder and R. Rotunno

P1.21

Extratropical control of subtropical humidity: diagnosis using tracers of last saturation

Joseph Galewsky, Columbia University, New York, NY; and A. H. Sobel and I. M. Held

P1.22

EOFs –myths, misconceptions and open problems

Ian T Jolliffe, University of Reading, Cowes, Isle of Wight, United Kingdom

P1.23

Ensemble Data Assimilation with the NCEP GFS

Jeffrey S. Whitaker, NOAA-CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; and T. M. Hamill

P1.24

Energy-conserving and Hamiltonian extensions of the Lorenz model

Alexander Gluhovsky, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN

P1.25

Diagnosis of medium-range predictability enhancement associated with anomalous zonal flow over western North America during winter

Lee A. Byerle, AWS, Tucson, 85708; and J. Paegle

P1.26

Off-line sequential bias estimation experiments with a Lorenz model

Joshua P. Hacker, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Snyder

P1.27

Available potential energy and its relatives

Theodore G. Shepherd, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada

P1.28

Assessing Predictability using Linear Inverse Models

P1.29

Another look at predictability in flows with many scales

Chris Snyder, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. Rotunno, F. Zhang, and R. Morss

P1.30

A simple 2-dimensional chaotic rain gush model

Stanley David Gedzelman, The City College of New York, New York, NY

P1.31

A priori identification of the inferior solutions in an ensemble of dynamical forecasts

Wilbur Y. Chen, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD

P1.32

A dynamical system analysis of Lorenz's low order model of the general circulation

Joy Romanski, Columbia University, New York, NY; and W. B. Rossow

P1.33

Singular vectors computed with a flow-dependent analysis error covariance norm

Mark Buehner, MSC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and A. Zadra

11:15 AM-12:15 PM: Thursday, 13 January 2005

Lorenz Symposium II

Sponsor: The Ed Lorenz Symposium

Papers:

11:15 AM

2.1

Insight of the second kind: A 21st century view of Ed Lorenz's visions of predictability from the 1950's onward

Leonard Allen Smith, London School of Economics/ Pembroke College, Oxford, London, United Kingdom

Recorded presentation

11:45 AM

2.2

Have we reached the limit of weather predictability?

J. Shukla, George Mason Univ. and COLA, Calverton, MD

Recorded presentation

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 13 January 2005

Lorenz Symposium III

Sponsor: The Ed Lorenz Symposium

Papers:

1:30 PM

3.1

The general circulation of the atmosphere, revisited

Kevin E. Trenberth, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Recorded presentation

2:00 PM

3.2

Stochastic parametrisation in Earth-system models

Tim Palmer, ECMWF, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom

Recorded presentation

2:30 PM

3.3

On the formation of tropical cyclones: Sequential downscale and upscale interactions

Peter J. Webster, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and G. J. Holland and R. A. Houze Jr.

Recorded presentation

3:30 PM-5:30 PM: Thursday, 13 January 2005

Lorenz Symposium IV

Sponsor: The Ed Lorenz Symposium

Papers:

3:30 PM

4.1

Role of the annular modes in the atmospheric general circulation

John M. Wallace, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. W. J. Thompson

Recorded presentation

4:00 PM

4.2

Scaling in geostrophic flow

Harry L. Swinney, University of Texas, Austin, TX; and S. Jung

Recorded presentation

4:30 PM

4.3

Dynamical fundamentals: some recent advances

ME McIntyre, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom

Recorded presentation

5:00 PM

4.4

Some reflections on the theoretical predictability of climate

Edward N. Lorenz, MIT, Camridge, MA

5:30 PM-5:30 PM: Thursday, 13 January 2005

Conference Ends

6:00 PM-6:00 PM: Thursday, 13 January 2005

Lorenz Symposium Banquet

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