85th AMS Annual Meeting

: The Ed Lorenz Symposium

The Ed Lorenz Symposium

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting

Thursday, 13 January 2005

6:00 AM-6:00 AM: Thursday, 13 January 2005


8:30 AM-9:30 AM: Thursday, 13 January 2005

Lorenz Symposium I
Sponsor: The Ed Lorenz Symposium

  9:00 AM
Waves, information and local predictability
Joseph Tribbia, NCAR, Boulder, CO

9:45 AM-9:45 AM: Thursday, 13 January 2005

Poster Session 1
Lorenz Symposium Posters
Sponsor: The Ed Lorenz Symposium

Value of the NWS/NCEP Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system for Quantifying Mesoscale Model Error
Jeffery T. McQueen, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and J. Du, B. Zhou, G. DiMego, B. Ferrier, G. Manikin, E. Rogers, H. Juang, and Z. Toth

Using numerical continuation to examine the predictability of the atmospheric boundary layer
Richard T. McNider, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and M. Friedman, A. Biazar, and X. Shi

Time-step sensitivity of nonlinear atmospheric models: numerical convergence, truncation error growth and ensemble design
João Teixeira, UCAR Visiting Scientist, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. A. Reynolds and K. Judd

The influence of rawinsonde observations on 3-7 day weather forecasts
Sharanya J. Majumdar, RSMAS/University of Miami, Miami, FL

Slow manifold and predictability
V. Krishnamurthy, COLA, Calverton, MD

Roots of ensemble forecasting
John M. Lewis, NOAA/NSSL, Reno, NV, NV

Quantifying and reducing uncertainty by employing model error estimation methods
Dusanka Zupanski, CIRA/Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO

Predictability—Who is the Main Player: IC or Model Physics Uncertainty?
Jun Du, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and J. McQueen

On the predictability of mesoscale convective systems
David J. Stensrud, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and L. J. Wicker

Non-Gaussian probability distributions: What are their implications for predictability?
Philip Sura, NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO; and M. Newman, C. Penland, and P. Sardeshmukh

Model error, attractors, and predictability
Kevin Judd, University of Western Australia, Perth, Western Australi, Australia; and C. A. Reynolds and T. E. Rosmond

Model diversities and their implication in multi-model ensembles
Dingchen Hou, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth, Y. Zhu, and R. Wobus

Maximum likelihood ensemble filter: exploiting dynamic localization of Lyapunov vectors
Milija Zupanski, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and S. J. Fletcher, I. M. Navon, and B. Uzunoglu

Local Lagrangian and Eulerian available energetics in moist atmospheres

Intercomparison of Global Research and Operational Forecasts
Jennifer C. Roman, AFWA/DNXT, Offutt AFB, NE; and G. Miguez-Macho, L. A. Byerle, and J. Paegle

Initial-time sensitivity of tropical cyclone track forecasts
Melinda S. Peng, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. A. Reynolds

Flow and Regime dependent mesoscale predictability
Fuqing Zhang, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and C. Snyder and R. Rotunno

Extratropical control of subtropical humidity: diagnosis using tracers of last saturation
Joseph Galewsky, Columbia University, New York, NY; and A. H. Sobel and I. M. Held

EOFs –myths, misconceptions and open problems
Ian T Jolliffe, University of Reading, Cowes, Isle of Wight, United Kingdom

Ensemble Data Assimilation with the NCEP GFS
Jeffrey S. Whitaker, NOAA-CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; and T. M. Hamill

Energy-conserving and Hamiltonian extensions of the Lorenz model
Alexander Gluhovsky, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN

Off-line sequential bias estimation experiments with a Lorenz model
Joshua P. Hacker, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Snyder

Available potential energy and its relatives
Theodore G. Shepherd, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada

Assessing Predictability using Linear Inverse Models

Another look at predictability in flows with many scales
Chris Snyder, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. Rotunno, F. Zhang, and R. Morss

A simple 2-dimensional chaotic rain gush model
Stanley David Gedzelman, The City College of New York, New York, NY

A dynamical system analysis of Lorenz's low order model of the general circulation
Joy Romanski, Columbia University, New York, NY; and W. B. Rossow

Singular vectors computed with a flow-dependent analysis error covariance norm
Mark Buehner, MSC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and A. Zadra

11:15 AM-12:15 PM: Thursday, 13 January 2005

Lorenz Symposium II
Sponsor: The Ed Lorenz Symposium

  11:15 AM
Insight of the second kind: A 21st century view of Ed Lorenz's visions of predictability from the 1950's onward
Leonard Allen Smith, London School of Economics/ Pembroke College, Oxford, London, United Kingdom

  11:45 AM
Have we reached the limit of weather predictability?
J. Shukla, George Mason Univ. and COLA, Calverton, MD

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 13 January 2005

Lorenz Symposium III
Sponsor: The Ed Lorenz Symposium

  2:00 PM
Stochastic parametrisation in Earth-system models
Tim Palmer, ECMWF, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom

  2:30 PM
On the formation of tropical cyclones: Sequential downscale and upscale interactions
Peter J. Webster, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and G. J. Holland and R. A. Houze Jr.

3:30 PM-5:30 PM: Thursday, 13 January 2005

Lorenz Symposium IV
Sponsor: The Ed Lorenz Symposium

  3:30 PM
Role of the annular modes in the atmospheric general circulation
John M. Wallace, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. W. J. Thompson

  4:00 PM
Scaling in geostrophic flow
Harry L. Swinney, University of Texas, Austin, TX; and S. Jung

  4:30 PM
Dynamical fundamentals: some recent advances
ME McIntyre, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom

  5:00 PM

5:30 PM-5:30 PM: Thursday, 13 January 2005

Conference Ends

6:00 PM-6:00 PM: Thursday, 13 January 2005

Lorenz Symposium Banquet