85th AMS Annual Meeting

Poster Session 1: Lorenz Symposium Posters

Thursday, 13 January 2005: 9:45 AM-9:45 AM
Value of the NWS/NCEP Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system for Quantifying Mesoscale Model Error
Jeffery T. McQueen, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and J. Du, B. Zhou, G. DiMego, B. Ferrier, G. Manikin, E. Rogers, H. Juang, and Z. Toth

Using numerical continuation to examine the predictability of the atmospheric boundary layer
Richard T. McNider, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and M. Friedman, A. Biazar, and X. Shi

Time-step sensitivity of nonlinear atmospheric models: numerical convergence, truncation error growth and ensemble design
João Teixeira, UCAR Visiting Scientist, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. A. Reynolds and K. Judd

The influence of rawinsonde observations on 3-7 day weather forecasts
Sharanya J. Majumdar, RSMAS/University of Miami, Miami, FL

Slow manifold and predictability
V. Krishnamurthy, COLA, Calverton, MD

Roots of ensemble forecasting
John M. Lewis, NOAA/NSSL, Reno, NV, NV

Quantifying and reducing uncertainty by employing model error estimation methods
Dusanka Zupanski, CIRA/Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO

Predictability—Who is the Main Player: IC or Model Physics Uncertainty?
Jun Du, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and J. McQueen

On the predictability of mesoscale convective systems
David J. Stensrud, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and L. J. Wicker

Non-Gaussian probability distributions: What are their implications for predictability?
Philip Sura, NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO; and M. Newman, C. Penland, and P. Sardeshmukh

Model error, attractors, and predictability
Kevin Judd, University of Western Australia, Perth, Western Australi, Australia; and C. A. Reynolds and T. E. Rosmond

Model diversities and their implication in multi-model ensembles
Dingchen Hou, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth, Y. Zhu, and R. Wobus

Maximum likelihood ensemble filter: exploiting dynamic localization of Lyapunov vectors
Milija Zupanski, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and S. J. Fletcher, I. M. Navon, and B. Uzunoglu

Local Lagrangian and Eulerian available energetics in moist atmospheres

Intercomparison of Global Research and Operational Forecasts
Jennifer C. Roman, AFWA/DNXT, Offutt AFB, NE; and G. Miguez-Macho, L. A. Byerle, and J. Paegle

Initial-time sensitivity of tropical cyclone track forecasts
Melinda S. Peng, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. A. Reynolds

Flow and Regime dependent mesoscale predictability
Fuqing Zhang, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and C. Snyder and R. Rotunno

Extratropical control of subtropical humidity: diagnosis using tracers of last saturation
Joseph Galewsky, Columbia University, New York, NY; and A. H. Sobel and I. M. Held

EOFs –myths, misconceptions and open problems
Ian T Jolliffe, University of Reading, Cowes, Isle of Wight, United Kingdom

Ensemble Data Assimilation with the NCEP GFS
Jeffrey S. Whitaker, NOAA-CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; and T. M. Hamill

Energy-conserving and Hamiltonian extensions of the Lorenz model
Alexander Gluhovsky, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN

Off-line sequential bias estimation experiments with a Lorenz model
Joshua P. Hacker, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Snyder

Available potential energy and its relatives
Theodore G. Shepherd, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada

Assessing Predictability using Linear Inverse Models

Another look at predictability in flows with many scales
Chris Snyder, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. Rotunno, F. Zhang, and R. Morss

A simple 2-dimensional chaotic rain gush model
Stanley David Gedzelman, The City College of New York, New York, NY

A dynamical system analysis of Lorenz's low order model of the general circulation
Joy Romanski, Columbia University, New York, NY; and W. B. Rossow

Singular vectors computed with a flow-dependent analysis error covariance norm
Mark Buehner, MSC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and A. Zadra