85th AMS Annual Meeting

Thursday, 13 January 2005
Interannual variability of tropical cyclone activity in the southern South China Sea
Zabani Md. Zuki, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and A. R. Lupo
Poster PDF (168.9 kB)
A study of the variability of tropical cyclones (TC) activity in the southern South China Sea (equatorward of 10 degrees North), which is part of the West North Pacific basin, was carried out during a 44 year period (1960 – 2003). Fewer studies have done in this region compared to the West North Pacific and South China Sea itself. Some initial results from this study shows that only 3.3 percent of the total of TC (tropical depression, tropical storm and typhoon) activity in the West North Pacific basin occurred in this area during the period of study. Roughly half of the TC activity in this area was of local origin. A spectral analysis of the time series demonstrates that the TC activities in this region have correlation with the El-Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Statistical analysis shows the ENSO influence was greater for TC activity in this region compared to the PDO, but that the PDO may best be thought of as modulating the ENSO connection. The results showed that there was significantly less TC activity in this region during El-Nino year compared to La-Nina and neutral years. Corresponding variations in the seas surface temperature, seas level pressure, and other atmospheric variables were also found.

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