The methodology used in the development of these new products, is a revision of CPC’s method for translating POE temperature outlooks to station POE. The revision includes trend adjustment criteria and station forecast procedure. The new forecast procedure uses estimates for station mean and standard deviation and a normal distribution to estimate POE ordinates. This new procedure defaults to the station climatological spread if either the CD outlook correlation skill score or the correlation between the CD and station observations are poor.
The ENSO based temperature and precipitation products are complimentary to the station POE temperature outlooks. Station records are trend adjusted if needed before a composite analysis is made. Trend adjustment assumes independence between the climate signal and the trend. Statistical significance of the composites is evaluated and included in the following forecast procedure. Both composite analysis and the forecast are included this product suite.
These products will be released on a monthly basis, and will follow CPC’s Seasonal Forecast product suite. The product design will accommodate both technical and general public customers, providing different levels of graphs, charts and explanatory text.
Supplementary URL: