Thursday, 13 January 2005: 8:30 AM
Interannual changes in the global direct radiative climate forcing by well-mixed greenhouse gases over the past 25 years
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The perturbation to radiative climate forcing which has the
largest magnitude and the least scientific uncertainty is the forcing related
to changes in long-lived and well mixed greenhouse gases, in particular carbon
dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O)
and the halocarbons (mainly CFCs). All of these gases have been monitored
around the world since the 1970’s mainly by NOAA’s Climate Monitoring and
Diagnostics Laboratory (CMDL), in Boulder, Colorado, and its forerunner, the
Geophysical Monitoring for Climatic Change (GMCC) program. CMDL operates four
fully instrumented baseline climate observatories at Pt. Barrow, Alaska; Mauna
Loa, Hawaii; American Samoa; and South Pole Station, Antarctica, where the
concentrations of the greenhouse gases are measured continuously as well as by air
sampling. In addition, air samples are collected through several global
networks, including a cooperative program which provides samples from over 50
global sites. All air samples are analyzed for gas concentrations and carbon
and oxygen isotopic ratios in Boulder. These data will be presented and
analyzed in terms of their changes and the changes in radiative forcing during
the 25-year period encompassing 1979 through 2003. The most notable change in
the past several years is an increase in the fraction of the radiative forcing
related to carbon dioxide from about 59% to 62%. This is mainly due to the
fact that the radiative forcing by CFCs and CH4 have declined or
grown only slowly in recent years. The interannual changes in global radiative
forcing, especially due to carbon dioxide, are substantial but are generally veiled
in the much larger total radiative forcing. In order to emphasize these interannual
changes, which are related to important source/sink processes, we introduce the
Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI), which is the annual change in total radiative
forcing (milliwatts per square meter) due to changes in all the major
greenhouse gases. Possible causes of these variations are discussed.
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