Tuesday, 11 January 2005
How often does it rain?
Daily precipitation data from rain-gauges and 7 fully-coupled climate models are analyzed to evaluate the models' performance in simulating precipitation frequency, intensity, and the number of days contributing to two-thirds (67%) of the total precipitation amount. Although the current models are able to simulate the total precipitation amount well, most of them cannot capture the spatial patterns of precipitation frequency and intensity. For light and moderate precipitation (1-10 mm day-1), most models overestimate the frequency but produce reasonable patterns of the intensity. For heavy precipitation (>10 mm day-1), most models significantly underestimate the intensity but simulate the frequency well. And for the number of days contributing to 67% of the total precipitation, the simulations of most models are inconsistent with the observations. The results indicate that the current climate models cannot successfully reproduce the major precipitation events.