18th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences


The North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS)

Zoltan Toth, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and L. Lefaivre, G. Brunet, P. L. Houtekamer, Y. Zhu, R. Wobus, Y. Pelletier, R. Verret, L. Wilson, B. Cui, G. Pellerin, B. A. Gordon, D. Michaud, E. Olenic, D. Unger, and S. Beauregard

The North American Ensemble Forecast System combines state of the art weather forecast tools, called ensemble forecasts, developed at the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC), and at the US National Weather Service (NWS). When combined, these tools (a) provide weather forecast guidance for the 1-14 day period that is of higher quality than the currently available operational guidance based on either set of tools alone; and (b) make a set of forecasts that are seamless across the national boundaries between Mexico and the US and the US and Canada. Since both the research/development and operational costs of the NAEFS system are shared by the three participants (MSC, NWS, and the National Meteorological Service of Mexico, NMSM), each weather service can produce higher quality and more extensive weather forecast guidance than they could working on their own. This presentation will cover the research and development work leading to the first operational implementation of the NAEFS system in March 2006. .

Session 4, Ensemble Forecasting
Tuesday, 31 January 2006, 8:45 AM-11:45 AM, A304

Next paper

Browse or search entire meeting

AMS Home Page