18th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences


Real time forecast verification tools at The Weather Channel, Atlanta GA

Jeral G. Estupiñán, The Weather Channel & Georgia Tech, Atlanta, GA; and J. P. Koval, P. M. Rouse, D. M. Long, B. Rose, R. Lucksinger, and C. Peters

In the course of a few decades the use of faster computers has shortened the time it takes to verify weather forecasts. Operational verification results can now be calculated much closer to the collection times of the ground truth data. These improvements in data processing times allow us to create near real time verification systems to take prompt action on the results. This study presents the benefits associated with a real time weather verification system at the Weather Channel. The main goal of this system is to change the forecaster behavior to maximize forecasting efforts with the clear understanding that humans are a key element of the forecast process. The system provides verification results for the entire United States to forecasters and managers immediately. This helps to sharpen service accountability and effectiveness. Verification results for QPF, sensible weather, and temperature are calculated automatically and made available to forecasters in the form of maps and graphs. This system, referred to as Advanced Verification Information for Smart Operational Results (ADVISOR), allows for the retrieval of past forecast discussions and model prognostications in conjunction with the verification results. An important component of this system is the database functionality which allows forecasters and managers to go back in time and study a particular situation. Results from this system will be presented and the results analyzed in context of the use of operational verification as a way to improve weather forecasts.

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wrf recording  Recorded presentation

Session 1, Forecast Evaluation
Monday, 30 January 2006, 9:00 AM-11:45 AM, A304

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