18th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences

Session 1


Forecast Evaluation

 Cochairs: Barbara G. Brown, NCAR, Boulder, CO; Marina M. Timofeyeva, UCAR, Boulder, CO and NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD
9:00 AM1.1The skill of forecasting relatively isolated severe thunderstorm events  extended abstract wrf recording
Andrew R. Dean, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. T. Schaefer
9:15 AM1.2Real time forecast verification tools at The Weather Channel, Atlanta GA  extended abstract wrf recording
Jeral G. Estupin, The Weather Channel & Georgia Tech, Atlanta, GA; and J. P. Koval, P. M. Rouse, D. M. Long, B. Rose, R. Lucksinger, and C. Peters
9:30 AM1.3Probabilistic forecasts, calibration and sharpness  
Tilmann Gneiting, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and F. Balabdaoui and A. E. Raftery
9:45 AM1.4Overestimating Forecast Skill Through Improper Application of Verification Metrics: Simpson's Paradox in Meteorology  
Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; and J. Juras
10:00 AMPaper 1.5 moved. New paper number 8.1A  
10:01 AM1.6Extending ROC analysis to the multicategory forecast problem   wrf recording
Matthew S. Wandishin, Univ. of Arizona and NSSL, Tucson, AZ; and S. L. Mullen
10:16 AMCoffee Break in Meeting Room Foyer  
10:45 AM1.7Evaluating spatial quantitative precipitation forecasts in the form of binary images  
Thomas C.M. Lee, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and E. Gilleland, B. G. Brown, and R. G. Bullock
11:00 AM1.8Bayesian Verification Measures for Forecasts of Continuous Predictands  
Roman Krzysztofowicz, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA
11:15 AM1.9Application of Evidence Theory to Quantify Uncertainty in Forecast of Hurricane Path  extended abstract
Svetlana V. Poroseva, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. Letschert and M. Y. Hussaini
11:30 AM1.10A New Spatial Scale Decomposition of the Brier Score for the Verification of Probabilistic Lightning Forecasts  extended abstract
Barbara Casati, MSC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and L. J. Wilson

Monday, 30 January 2006: 9:00 AM-11:45 AM, A304

* - Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting

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