Session 1
	Forecast Evaluation
	Cochairs: Barbara G. Brown, NCAR, Boulder, CO; Marina M. Timofeyeva, UCAR, Boulder, CO and NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD
	9:00 AM	1.1	The skill of forecasting relatively isolated severe thunderstorm events   Andrew R. Dean, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. T. Schaefer
	9:15 AM	1.2	Real time forecast verification tools at The Weather Channel, Atlanta GA   Jeral G. Estupiñán, The Weather Channel & Georgia Tech, Atlanta, GA; and J. P. Koval, P. M. Rouse, D. M. Long, B. Rose, R. Lucksinger, and C. Peters
	9:30 AM	1.3	Probabilistic forecasts, calibration and sharpness   Tilmann Gneiting, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and F. Balabdaoui and A. E. Raftery
	9:45 AM	1.4	Overestimating Forecast Skill Through Improper Application of Verification Metrics: Simpson's Paradox in Meteorology   Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; and J. Juras
	10:00 AM		Paper 1.5 moved. New paper number 8.1A
	10:01 AM	1.6	Extending ROC analysis to the multicategory forecast problem   Matthew S. Wandishin, Univ. of Arizona and NSSL, Tucson, AZ; and S. L. Mullen
	10:16 AM		Coffee Break in Meeting Room Foyer
	10:45 AM	1.7	Evaluating spatial quantitative precipitation forecasts in the form of binary images   Thomas C.M. Lee, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and E. Gilleland, B. G. Brown, and R. G. Bullock
	11:00 AM	1.8	Bayesian Verification Measures for Forecasts of Continuous Predictands   Roman Krzysztofowicz, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA
	11:15 AM	1.9	Application of Evidence Theory to Quantify Uncertainty in Forecast of Hurricane Path   Svetlana V. Poroseva, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. Letschert and M. Y. Hussaini
	11:30 AM	1.10	A New Spatial Scale Decomposition of the Brier Score for the Verification of Probabilistic Lightning Forecasts   Barbara Casati, MSC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and L. J. Wilson

Monday, 30 January 2006: 9:00 AM-11:45 AM, A304

* - Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting

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