14th Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the Air and Waste Management Assoc
AMS Forum: Environmental Risk and Impacts on Society: Successes and Challenges


Meteorological Uncertainty Effects in Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion Modeling: A Demonstration

L. Joel Peltier, Penn State Univ., State College, PA; and S. E. Haupt, J. C. Wyngaard, D. R. Stauffer, A. Deng, and F. Kredensor

Atmospheric transport and dispersion models require estimates of the wind field as input. Uncertainty in the input wind field contributes directly to uncertainty in the dispersion predictions and therefore to uncertainty in the emergency-response decisions based on them. We present the results of our detailed analysis of one atmospheric transport and dispersion model, SCIPUFF, identifying the modeling components sensitive to meteorological uncertainty and discussing the theoretical justifications for a proposed treatment. Central to our presentation is a conceptual framework that defines and discusses “inner” and “outer” sources of variability in meteorological fields. We show that “inner” variability is already parameterized in SCIPUFF. We suggest that “outer” variability may be parameterized adequately by redefining the model length scale that governs plume spread. We present a possible new definition for this length scale and a supporting data analysis using an ensemble of mesoscale model output. We then apply the new length scale field in SCIPUFF and assess its impact on the uncertainty.

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Joint Session 2, Low-level transport in urban and complex terrain (Joint with 14th Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorolgy with the A&WMA and AMS Forum: Environmental Risks and Impacts on Society: Success and Challenges)
Tuesday, 31 January 2006, 8:30 AM-12:15 PM, A311

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