Utilizing Experimental Graphical Severe Weather Warning Probabilities to Supplement the Hazardous Weather Outlook

The Hazardous Weather Outlook is a routine product issued by National Weather Service Forecast Offices, and the Weather Forecast Office (WFO) in Tulsa, Oklahoma has been producing experimental severe weather warning probabilities to supplement this textual product. The probabilities and associated graphics are produced for locations within the WFO Tulsa county warning area. These values represent the probability that any given location will be within a severe weather warning (i.e., Severe Thunderstorm or Tornado Warning) within the Day 1 period (current day and night). Forecasting the actual probability of tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and hail at any one location is difficult, and the resultant numbers are statistically small and may not be overly compelling to inspire preparation for a severe weather threat. In an attempt to more effectively communicate the likelihood of severe weather, forecasting the probability of a response was chosen for the experiment. The basis for this argument is in planning for the response, one is prepared for the event. Observed warning polygon coverage is used for verification of the resultant probabilities. Local definitions, architecture for producing the probabilities, and examples of the product will be shown. In addition, preliminary verification statistics will be discussed.