Very short range forecasting of precipitation: Comparing NWP and extrapolation techniques
At the National Center for Atmospheric Research we have been examining, over the last decade, the ability of NWP models to explicitly forecast convective storms in the 0-3 hour timescale. The technique we have been using is four-dimensional variational assimilation of radar data into a cloudscale model. We are performing a systematic comparison of stormscale NWP and Nowcasting methods for a number of convective cases from the midwest of the USA as part of the RCWF program supported by the FAA. At the Conference, the case studies will be briefly described verification results presented and then the pros and cons of very short range NWP discussed.