An analysis of Collaborative Convective Forecast Product performance for the 2005 convective season
Previous verification work has focused primarily on the observed coverage aspect of the CCFP. Expected coverage is perhaps the most fundamental aspect of CCFP performance that is of direct relevance to the routing of air traffic. Additionally, past work has focused on the aggregate of all forecast polygons associated with a given forecast issuance. Such an approach yields overall performance information that is incomplete. A more thorough evaluation of the CCFP can be obtained by analzing the forecasts on a per-polygon basis instead of a per-issuance basis.
In this work, CCFP performance will be analyzed on a per-polygon basis for the period 1 March 2005 through 25 October 2005. Observed coverage statistics will be generated using National Convective Weather Diagnostic (NCWD) data. Echo top information from the Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) will be used for the first time to validate the echo top forecast information contained within the CCFP. The addition of echo tops to the CCFP analysis allows for complete evaluation of the CCFP minimum requirements along with the separate echo top forecast category. This analysis will provide insight previously unavailable into the performance of the CCFP and will prove useful in the design and modification of future CCFP forecast criteria.