The Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT): Progress and Future Plans

Experimental analysis and forecasting tools and techniques, developed by the research community, have been tested and evaluated during 2005 at the Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center (TPC/NHC), in real time for the fifth consecutive hurricane season, under the auspices of the U. S. Weather Research Program's Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT). Nine initial JHT projects concluded in 2003, which resulted in six of them being operationally implemented. A second round of 15 JHT projects began in late 2003, and most of these were tested and evaluated through the 2005 season. These include proposed upgrades to dynamical models and model components (including the GFDL hurricane model), enhancements to observed data and assimilation techniques, track forecasting algorithms, intensity estimation and forecasting algorithms, and assessments of dynamical model forecasts of tropical cyclogenesis and of tropical cyclone rainfall. Additionally, a third round of projects began in the summer of 2005, with testing and evaluation to take place during the 2005-06 seasons. The complete life cycle of a JHT project will be summarized, including proposal submission and review, quasi-operational testing and evaluation, and decisions on operational implementation. Potential future opportunities for the involvement of additional members of the research community in the JHT will also be described.