Climate-informed decision tools for the water and energy sector (INVITED PRESENTATION)

Seasonal variability in precipitation and temperature directly impact supply and demand of water and energy. This study outlines generic approaches for using season-ahead or longer streamflow forecasts for the management of both water and energy sectors contingent on reservoir storage conditions, climate outlooks and fuel stocks. The water and energy management mechanisms that are discussed include a conditional reservoir rule curve, contracted water supply with compensation, incentive-based water allocation with insurance, conjunctive use of groundwater and surface water for municipal water supply and the scheduling of power plants to meet firm power demand using hydroclimatic forecasts. Capitalizing on available climate forecasting skill appears to increase the economic efficiency of production in these sectors, particularly in scheduling energy grids that are highly dependent on hydropower generation and in operating reservoir systems constrained by multiple competing uses. Interventions in these sectors for the Philippines and Brazil are quite promising given the skill in predicting the hydroclimatic attributes and the need for improved efficiency in energy and water management.