Recent results from Winter Storm Reconnaissance (WSR) programs

The winter storm reconnaissance (WSR) program began in 1999 and has been operational at NCEP since January 2000. Based on NCEP and ECWMF ensemble prediction products, Ensmemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF) technique is used to identify the flight tracks that might improve forecast to certain U.S continental weather events. Prior only to significant weather events of interest, dropwinsonde observations are taken over the NE Pacific by aircraft operated by NOAA’Aircraft Operations Center (G-IV) and the US Air Force Reserve (C-130s). The past results have shown the program improved forecast in the 1-4 day lead-time range for high societal impact weather events.

We will evaluate the the reduction of forecast RSM error by the NCEP Global forecast and assimiliation system with the inclusion of the targeted observations during 2004 and 2005. Precipitation impact evaluated by the ETS score will also be addressed.