P1.3
Using lightning and total lightning data for a MOS (Model Output Statistics) based thunderstorm nowcasting
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MOS is an automated weather forecast by statistical interpretation of the numerical model output. These systems usually establish regression equations between numerical model fields and observed weather elements (called predictors) to predict the determined predictands (e.g. probability of thunderstorms, precipitation, or various other meteorological parameters). There already exist MOS Systems in Germany, Europe (e.g. in the Netherlands) or the U.S., a few of them work operational, and others are currently under development. But only some of them make use of lightning and total lightning data. However, the lightning and total lightning information is mainly used as a source for the predictand, i.e. the probability of thunderstorms, rather than as predictors.
We are developing a new MOS scheme for nowcasting of thunderstorms (0 – 3 h), which is based on the output of the German Local Model (LM) and lightning data. In the next step we will use SAFIR (Surveillance et Alerte Foudre par Interférométrie Radioélectrique) TL data as predictors in order to find out the benefit of this new data source. The information of lightning and TL additional to the numerical model output would improve the temporal and spatial resolution of the short-term thunderstorm forecast, due to lightning and TL are direct indicators for severe weather. Lightning research in Hannover/Germany is essentially based on a university owned regional and operational SAFIR total lightning detection system (Finke et al., 2005) as well as on the operational lightning detection system of the German Weather Service (see also http://www.blids.org).
This research originated from a project within the Priority Program SPP1167 “Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF)” of the German Research Foundation (DFG).