4
Ensemble Forecasting

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Tuesday, 31 January 2006: 8:45 AM-11:45 AM
A304 (Georgia World Congress Center)
Host: 18th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Cochairs:  David R. Bright, Storm Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK and Roman Krzysztofowicz, Systems Engineering and Statistics, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA
Papers:
  8:45 AM
4.1
The North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS)
Zoltan Toth, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and L. Lefaivre, G. Brunet, P. L. Houtekamer, Y. Zhu, R. Wobus, Y. Pelletier, R. Verret, L. Wilson, B. Cui, G. Pellerin, B. A. Gordon, D. Michaud, E. Olenic, D. Unger, and S. Beauregard
  Recorded presentation

  9:00 AM
4.2
Recent changes in the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System
Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth, R. Wobus, and Q. Liu
  Recorded presentation

  9:15 AM
4.3
Will Perturbing Soil Moisture Improve Warm-Season Ensemble Forecasts? A Proof of Concept
Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; and T. T. Warner and C. J. Sutton
  Recorded presentation

  9:30 AM
4.4
Pre-emptive forecasts from an ensemble Kalman filter
Brian Etherton, University of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC
  Recorded presentation

  9:45 AM
4.5
A Stochastic Parameterization Scheme within NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System
Dingchen Hou, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC and SAIC, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth and Y. Zhu
  Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (198.9 kB)

  10:00 AM
4.6
An implementation of the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter on the NCEP GFS
Istvan Szunyogh, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and E. J. Kostelich and G. Gyarmati
  Recorded presentation

  10:15 AM
4.7
An ensemble data assimilation scheme that has mixed Gaussian and non-Gaussian errors
Steven J. Fletcher, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and M. Zupanski
  Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (119.8 kB)

  10:30 AM
4.4A
Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

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