Interannual vegetable yield variability in Ontario: is climate a factor?

Agricultural productivity increased steadily after the last war due to nitrogen fertilizers and management practices. However, horticultural yield data in Ontario from the last few decades shows extreme variability from year to year. Sweet potato yield data shows a correlation with seasonal vapour pressure deficit, with negative correlation for some varieties and positive for others. Therefore we are examining the climate records of Ontario in an effort to establish other correlations between climatic factors and yields of different horticultural crops. This talk will present an analysis of interannual climatic variability in Ontario over the last four decades with particular attention paid to any changes in variability. The analysis will be presented in the context of horticultural yield data. The goal of this work is to identify which varieties thrive under which conditions to better assess climate change adaptation scenarios.