A cellular automaton urban growth model modified for satellite data input and regional climate output.

An operational regional planning model that will enable one, for the first time, to clearly incorporate surface microclimatic changes into decision-making will be presented. First, it will be shown that changes in the microclimate and surface hydrology can be predicted based on urban development. Then a cellular automaton urban growth model, developed by Professor Keith Clarke at the University of California, Santa Barbara, will be used to drive future growth scenarios, while the "start-up" microclimate and surface hydrology for the region of interest will be derived from satellite imagery. As the Clarke model predicts new growth and generates changes in land cover, site-specific climate and hydrology will evolve based on the predictive equations that have been developed in a previous study. This work thus advances the growth prediction beyond a qualitative look at development patterns and into an environmental assessment of a region's future. Additionally, the quantitative information derivable from multi-spectral satellite imagery will finally be presented in a form that is of use to policy makers. The main example that will be presented involves using the model to examine the effects of projected road construction in the presence of zoning restrictions, e.g., state forests, strip mines, game lands, in an economically impacted area in central Pennsylvania.