Friday, 28 July 2017
Atrium (Hyatt Regency Baltimore)
Tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the North Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans is known to be affected by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This study uses the GFDL Forecast Oriented Low Ocean Resolution Model (FLOR), which has relatively high resolution in the atmosphere, as a tool to investigate the sensitivity of TC activity to the strength of ENSO events. This study shows that TCs exhibit a nonlinear response to the strength of ENSO in the tropical eastern North Pacific (ENP) but a quasi-linear response in the tropical western North Pacific (WNP) and tropical North Atlantic. Specifically, a stronger El Niño results in disproportionate inhibition of TCs in the ENP and North Atlantic, and leads to an eastward shift in the location of TCs in the southeast of the WNP. However, the character of the response of TCs in the Pacific is insensitive to the amplitude of La Niña events. The eastward shift of TCs in the southeast of the WNP in response to a strong El Niño is due to an eastward shift of the convection and of the associated environmental conditions favorable for TCs. The inhibition of TC activity in the ENP and Atlantic during El Niño is attributed to the increase in the number of days with strong vertical wind shear during stronger El Niño events. These results are further substantiated with coupled model experiments. Understanding of the impact of strong ENSO on TC activity is important for present and future climate as the frequency of occurrence of extreme ENSO events is projected to increase in the future.
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