30th Conference on Climate Variability and Change/24th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences/16th Conference on Artificial Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences

Registration Opens

Location: Constellation Foyer (Hyatt Regency Baltimore)

Session 1A

Location: Constellation E (Hyatt Regency Baltimore)

Host: 30th Conference on Climate Variability and Change, 24th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, and the 16th Conference on Artificial Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences

Chair: Angel Muñoz, Princeton University

8:30 AM

1A.1

Changes in Internal Variability of Annual Mean Precipitation Simulated in a High Emissions Scenario

Emerson LaJoie, CPC, College Park, MD

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

1A.2

Investigating the Influence of Non-Gaussian Temperature Distribution Tails on Future Changes in Extreme Warm Threshold Exceedances

Paul Loikith, Portland State University, Portland, OR; and J. D. Neelin and J. Meyerson

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

1A.3

A Multi-Platform Dataset Assessment of Observational Uncertainty in Extreme Precipitation Events over the Continental United States

Emily A. Slinskey, Portland State University, Portland, OR; and P. Loikith and D. E. Waliser

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

1A.4

Interdecadal Precipitation Variability in Distinct Tropical Zones during the Satellite Era

Guojun Gu, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and R. F. Adler

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

1A.5

Understanding How Tropical Cyclone Intensification Rates Increase with Projected Radiative Forcing in HiFLOR

Kieran Bhatia, Princeton Univ./GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and G. Vecchi

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

1A.6

Impact Assessment of Coastal Hazards due to Typhoons in the Marshall Islands

C.M. Nederhoff, Deltares, Delft, Netherlands; and A. Giardino

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (2.0 MB)

Handout (2.1 MB)

Session 1B

Process-Oriented Model Evaluation and Prediction

Location: Constellation F (Hyatt Regency Baltimore)

Host: 30th Conference on Climate Variability and Change, 24th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, and the 16th Conference on Artificial Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences

Chair: Tara Jensen, NCAR/RAL and Developmental Testbed Center

Irradiance Levels and Hourly Temperature: Evidence from the Arctic

1B.1

Using Land-Atmosphere Coupling for Process Oriented Model Evaluation

8:30 AM

1B.1A

Bias Correction to Improve the Skill of Summer Precipitation Forecasts as Produced by North American Multi-Model Ensemble System over Contiguous United States

Bala Narapusetty, CPC, College Park, MD; and D. C. Collins and J. Gottschalck

Recorded Presentation

Handout (3.3 MB)

8:45 AM

1B.2

Evaluation of Extra-Tropical Cyclones Using a Feature-Relative Method

Tara L. Jensen, NCAR/RAL, Boulder, CO; and J. Halley Gotway, P. A. Kucera, and B. A. Colle

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

1B.3

Projection of Dynamically Downscaled Precipitation using a Newly Developed Feature-tracking Algorithm

Jiali Wang, ANL, Lemont, IL; and W. Chang, Z. Zobel, and R. Kotamarthi

Recorded Presentation

Handout (3.3 MB)

9:15 AM

1B.4

Constraining and Estimating Microphysical Parameterization Uncertainty using Polarimetric Radar Observations and the Bayesian Observationally-constrained Statistical-physical Scheme (BOSS), a Novel Probabilistic Microphysics Framework

Marcus van Lier-Walqui, Columbia Univ. & NASA/GISS, New York, NY; and M. R. Kumjian, C. Martinkus, H. Morrison, and O. P. Prat

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

1B.5

The Effect of Model Parameters on the Spatial Structure of Forecast Fields

Caren Marzban, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. Tardif, S. A. Sandgathe, C. Jones, X. Du, N. Li, N. Hryniw, N. Lederer, J. Doyle, and Y. Jin

Recorded Presentation

Coffee Break

Location: Constellation Foyer (Hyatt Regency Baltimore)

Session 2A

Extreme Value Analysis and Prediction

Location: Constellation E (Hyatt Regency Baltimore)

Host: 30th Conference on Climate Variability and Change, 24th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, and the 16th Conference on Artificial Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences

Chair: Eric Gilleland, NCAR

10:30 AM

2A.1

Estimates of Extreme Precipitation Frequency from Spatially Dense Observations

Lynne Seymour, University of Georgia, Athens, GA; and K. S. Mattingly and P. W. Miller

10:45 AM

2A.2

Constructing a Procedure to Identify Variables Associated with Storm Reports in High-Shear Low-CAPE Severe Environments within the Southeastern United States

Dianna M. Francisco, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and L. Xie

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

2A.3

Modeling Precipitation Extremes using Log-Histospline

Whitney K. Huang, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and D. W. Nychka and H. Zhang

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

2A.4

Attributing Extreme Fire Risk in Western Canada to Human Emissions

Megan C. Kirchmeier-Young, University of Victoria, Victoria, Canada; and F. W. Zwiers, N. P. Gillett, and A. J. Cannon

Recorded Presentation

2A.5

Return Levels of Rainfall Extremes during the Typhoon Season in Taiwan under a Changing Climate

11:30 AM

2A.5A

A Comparative Study of Different Ways to Estimate Extreme Temperatures and Associated Uncertainties in a Non-Stationary Context

Yasser Hamdi, Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety, Hauts-de-seine, France

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

2A.6

Representing Temperature and Precipitation Extremes by Dynamical Downscaling Using a Global, Multi-resolution Atmospheric Modeling System

Martin J. Otte, Univ. of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and F. Munoz-Arriola

Recorded Presentation

Session 2B

Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction and Predictability I: Subseasonal

Location: Constellation F (Hyatt Regency Baltimore)

Host: 30th Conference on Climate Variability and Change, 24th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, and the 16th Conference on Artificial Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences

Chair: Malaquias Pena, SAIC and EMC/NCEP/NOAA

10:30 AM

2B.1

The NOAA/MAPP Program Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Task Force

Heather M. Archambault, NOAA, Princeton, NJ; and D. Barrie and A. Mariotti

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

2B.2

Experimental Sub-seasonal Prediction of North Atlantic Hurricanes using the GFDL HiRAM

Kun Gao, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and L. Harris, J. H. Chen, and S. J. Lin

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

2B.3

Ensemble Perturbations for Subseasonal CFSv2 Forecasts

Malaquias Peña, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, CO; and S. Saha, D. T. Kleist, X. Wu, J. Woolen, H. V. D. Dool, and H. C. Lee

Recorded Presentation

2B.4

Forecasting Extreme Heat Events: Updates to the Subseasonal Excessive Heat Outlook System

11:15 AM

2B.4A

Can Neural Networks aid the Week 3-4 forecasting challenge?

Kyle MacRitchie, Innovim, LLC and NOAA/CPC, College Park, MD; and D. C. Collins and J. Gottschalck

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

2B.5

Forecasting North Pacific Height Anomalies with the MJO on S2S timescales

Kai-Chih Tseng, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and E. A. Barnes and E. Maloney

Recorded Presentation

Handout (6.4 MB)

2B.6

MJO Impact on South America Monsoon Precipitation: Observations and S2S models

Lunch

Session 3A

Artificial Intelligence, Machine-Learning and Decision Making

Location: Constellation E (Hyatt Regency Baltimore)

Host: 30th Conference on Climate Variability and Change, 24th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, and the 16th Conference on Artificial Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences

Chair: Caren Marzban, University of Washington

1:30 PM

3A.1

Creating High-Resolution Convection Forecasts over Northeast Colorado Using Random Forests

Gregory R. Herman, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. S. Schumacher

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

3A.2

Probabilistic Locally Extreme Precipitation Forecasting with Machine Learning

Gregory R. Herman, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. S. Schumacher

2:00 PM

3A.3

Improving Satellite Observation Utilization for Model Initialization Through the Use of Supervised Machine Learning

Yu-Ju Lee, NOAA/ESRL/GSD (CIRES), Boulder, CO; and C. Bonfanti and J. Q. Stewart

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

3A.4

Downscaling Remotely-Sensed Soil Moisture Estimates using Machine Learning Techniques

Seyed Hamed Alemohammad, Columbia University, New York, NY; and J. Kolassa, C. Prigent, F. Aires, and P. Gentine

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

3A.5

Semi-seasonal to Seasonal Predictability and Uncertainty of Groundwater Depletions using a Data-Driven Model Ensemble Approach in Irrigated Areas of the Northern High Plains

Alessandro Amaranto, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and G. Corzo-Perez, D. Solomatine, and F. Munoz-Arriola

Recorded Presentation

3A.6

Mining data and expert intuition to develop a nonlinear tropical cyclone intensification model

2:45 PM

3A.7

A Few Meteorological Applications of Sparse Principal Component Analysis

Caren Marzban, University of Washington, Seattle, WA

Recorded Presentation

Paper 3A.8 has been moved. New paper number is 2B.4A.

Session 3B

Ensemble and Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasting Methods

Location: Constellation F (Hyatt Regency Baltimore)

Host: 30th Conference on Climate Variability and Change, 24th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, and the 16th Conference on Artificial Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences

Cochairs: Dan C. Collins, NOAA/CPC; Nicolas Vigaud, IRI, Columbia Univ.

1:30 PM

3B.1

Multi-model Ensembles with Spatial and Model Dependencies

David Soule, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA

Recorded Presentation

Handout (1.7 MB)

1:45 PM

3B.2

Local Diagnostics to Assess the Performance of Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction Systems

Elizabeth A. Satterfield, NRL, Monterey, CA

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

3B.3

Adaptive Ensemble Climate Simulations

Alicia Sanchez Lorente, Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain; and A. Sanchez Lorente

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

3B.4

Multi-model Ensembling and Calibration of S2S Precipitation Forecasts over North America

Nicolas Vigaud, IRI, Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY; and A. W. Robertson and M. K. Tippett

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

3B.5

The Probability Anomaly Correlation and Calibration of Probabilistic Forecasts

Huug van den Dool, CPC, College Park, MD

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

3B.6

Skillful Climate Forecasts of the Tropical Indo-Pacific using Model-based Analogs

Hui Ding, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, and NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and M. Newman, M. Alexander, and A. Wittenberg

3:00 PM

3B.7

Application of a Hybrid Statistical-Dynamical Prediction System to Seasonal Forecasts of North American Temperature

Sarah E. Strazzo, Innovim, LLC, Greenbelt, MD; and D. C. Collins, Q. J. Wang, and A. D. Schepen

Recorded Presentation

Handout (4.8 MB)

3:15 PM

3B.8

Calibration of Ensemble Climate Forecasts by Weighted Linear Regression

David A. Unger, Innovim/CPC/NCEP/NWS, College Park, MD; and D. C. Collins

Recorded Presentation

3:30 PM

3B.9

On the Potential Forecast of Extremes in Seasonal Temperatures using a Multi-Model Ensemble (MME)

Dan C. Collins, NOAA, College Park, MD; and E. J. Becker

Recorded Presentation

Poster Session 1

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Location: Atrium (Hyatt Regency Baltimore)

Host: 30th Conference on Climate Variability and Change, 24th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, and the 16th Conference on Artificial Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences

1

Impact of Strong ENSO on Regional Tropical Cyclone Activity in a High-Resolution Climate Model in the North Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans

Lakshmi Krishnamurthy, Princeton University/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and G. Vecchi, R. Msadek, H. Murakami, A. T. Wittenberg, and F. Zeng

2

Non-Gaussian Analysis of Observations from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder

Sergio DeSouza-Machado, JCET/Univ. of Maryland, Baltimore, MD; and A. Tangborn, P. Sura, and L. L. Strow

3

Prediction of the El Nino and Associated Climate Fluctuations Using the Perigees Per Year

Albert R. Boehm, Retired, Huntsville, AL

4

The effect of model parameters on objects in forecast fields

5

Assessment of the Climate Forecast System Version 2 and the Effects of ENSO/NAO on Predictive Skill

Douglas E. Miller, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and Z. Wang

6

A Comparative Study of Different Ways to Estimate Extreme Temperatures and Associated Uncertainties in a Non-Stationary Context Poster

Yasser Hamdi, Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety, Hauts-de-seine, France

7

Forecast Uncertainty and Regional Mixture Distributions in the Ensemble Subspace

Justin G. McLay, NRL, Monterey, CA; and E. A. Satterfield

8

Changes in Northern Hemisphere Winter Storm Tracks and Extreme Precipitation, Attributed to the 1.5C and 2C Levels of Global Warming

Monika J. Barcikowska, Environmental Defense Fund, New York, NY; and S. Weaver and F. Feser

9

Redistribution of Arctic Freshwater Driven by the Atmospheric Pacific-Atlantic Arctic Dipole

Minghong Zhang, Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Dartmouth, Canada; and W. Perrie and Z. Long

10

Smart Weather Service for MICE based on Meteorological Observation by Crowdsourcing

Young-Mi Lee, ECOBRAIN, Jeju-si, Korea, Republic of (South); and D. B. Park

11

Drought Dynamcis Over Contiguous US as projected by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 Projection Scenarios

12

Appraisal of HEC-HMS for Continuous Hydrological Modeling over a Large River Basin in India

13

Hybrid Dynamical-Statistical Seasonal Forecasts with Weather Types

Nat Johnson, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and Á. G. Muñoz

14

Benchmark Statistical Model for Seasonal Prediction of Temperature and Precipitation

Daniel Barandiaran, CPC, College Park, MD; and S. Baxter

15

Recent Advancements in Verification within the Developmental Testbed Center

Tara L. Jensen, NCAR/RAL, Boulder, CO; and J. Halley Gotway, R. Bullock, T. L. Fowler, and B. Brown

16

Research on the Hurricane Clustering over North Atlantic Basin

Xia Sun, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and W. Zhou and L. Xie

17

Global Warming, New Climate, New Atmospheric Circulation and Extreme events in North Africa

Mohammed-Said Karrouk, University Hassan II, Casablanca, Morocco

18

S2S Climate Services related to Mid-Summer Drought

19

Photosynthetic Active Radiation Forecast via Artificial Neural Network, Support Vector Regression and Multiple Linear Regression

20

An Analysis of Turkey Wind Speed Data with the Marginal Entropy and a New Index about Prediction

Ozlem Baydaroglu, Istanbul Technical Univ., Istanbul, Turkey; and K. Kocak

21

Study of Observed Precipitation and Temperature Extreme Indices over India

Rehana Shaik, International Institute of Information Technology, Hyderabad, India; and L. A. Herrera Leon, M. Khan, and F. Munoz-Arriola

22

Estimation of Regional Drought Index Considering the Climate and Land Surface Changes over a Large River Basin in India

Shaik Rehana, International Institute of Information Technology, Hyderabad, India

Registration

Location: Constellation Foyer (Hyatt Regency Baltimore)

Session 4A

Derived Forecasts, Decision Support and Climate Services

Location: Constellation E (Hyatt Regency Baltimore)

Host: 30th Conference on Climate Variability and Change, 24th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, and the 16th Conference on Artificial Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences

Chair: Matthew Peroutka, NOAA/NWS

8:30 AM

4A.1

A Standards-based Approach to Data Encoding for Statistical Post-processing of Model Output

Matthew R. Peroutka, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and E. Engle, J. Levit, M. Hedley, and R. Conroy

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

4A.2

The Contribution of High Resolution Medium Range Weather Forecast to the Improvement of Hydro-Climate Prediction

Li Xu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD

Recorded Presentation

Handout (1.9 MB)

9:00 AM

4A.3

Non-stationary Spatio-temporal Modeling of Traffic-related Pollutants in Near-Road Environments

Owais Gilani, Bucknell University, Lewisburg, PA; and V. J. Berrocal and S. A. Batterman

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

4A.4

Uncertainty Analysis of Urban Sewer System using Spatial Simulation of Radar Rainfall Field: New York City Case Study

Ali Hamidi, City University of New York, New York, NY; and R. Khanbilvardi

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

4A.5

Mapping Physical Vulnerability to Extreme Precipitation on River Basins with Water, Agriculture, and Energy Resources Infrastructure

Ignacio Luna, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and D. Jarquin, H. Greer, D. A. Rico, and F. Munoz-Arriola

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

4A.6

Translating Atmospheric Predictability to Hydrology in Flood Forecasts for South Asia

Thomas M. Hopson, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and E. Riddle, D. Broman, S. Priya, D. Collins, D. Rostkier-Edelstein, and W. Young

Recorded Presentation

Session 4B

Forecast Verification

Location: Constellation F (Hyatt Regency Baltimore)

Host: 30th Conference on Climate Variability and Change, 24th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, and the 16th Conference on Artificial Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences

Chair: Ed Boone, Virginia Commonwealth University

8:30 AM

4B.1

Room for Improvement in Seasonal-to-Decadal Climate Prediction

Sang-Ik Shin, Univ. of Colorado/CIRES and NOAA/ESRL/Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO; and M. Newman

8:45 AM

4B.2

Challenges in Regional Verification of Climate Variability Projections and Predictions

Barbara G. Brown, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. P. Kalb, C. M. Ammann, and R. Bullock

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

4B.3

Update on MET+ Unified Verification Project

Tara L. Jensen, NCAR/RAL, Boulder, CO; and B. Strong, I. Stajner, F. Yang, G. Manikin, J. Halley Gotway, P. Shafran, and G. H. White

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

4B.4

Spatial Forecast Verification and the Mesoscale Verification Intercomparison over Complex Terrain

Eric Gilleland, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. P. Mittermaier, M. Dorninger, B. Brown, B. Casati, E. Ebert, and L. J. Wilson

9:30 AM

4B.5

Examining Verification Methods for Evaluation of Cloud Predictions

Barbara Brown, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. L. Jensen, J. Halley Gotway, E. Gilleland, T. L. Fowler, R. G. Bullock, and K. Newman

Recorded Presentation

4B.6

Detection of Spatial Biases in GCM-based Predictions and Projections

Coffee Break

Location: Constellation Foyer (Hyatt Regency Baltimore)

Session 5A

Attribution in the Presence of Internal Climate Variability

Location: Constellation E (Hyatt Regency Baltimore)

Host: 30th Conference on Climate Variability and Change, 24th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, and the 16th Conference on Artificial Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences

Chair: Nathaniel C. Johnson, NOAA/CPC

10:30 AM

5A.1

An 'Observational Large Ensemble' to Compare Observed and Modeled Temperature Trend Uncertainty due to Internal Variability

Karen A. McKinnon, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and A. Poppick, E. Dunn-Sigouin, and C. Deser

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

5A.2

A Computationally Efficient Approach to Generate Large Ensembles of Climate Data with Coherent Spatial and Temporal Variability

Cary Lynch, PNNL, College Park, MD

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

5A.3

A Flexible Decomposition of Climate Variability into Regional Components and Teleconnections: Insights from a Large Initial Condition Ensemble

Vineel Yettella, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. B. Weiss, J. Kay, and A. G. Pendergrass

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

5A.4

Variability and Confidence Intervals for the Mean of Climate Data with Short- and Long-Range Dependence

Matthew C. Bowers, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and W. W. Tung

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

5A.5

Observed Warming in Dry Seasons over Northern South America has an Anthropogenic Origin

Armineh Barkhordarian, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and H. von Storch and C. R. Mechoso

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

5A.6

Space-Only Fingerprinting

Timothy DelSole, George Mason Univ., Fairfax, VA; and X. Yan

Recorded Presentation

Session 5B

Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction and Predictability II: Seasonal

Location: Constellation F (Hyatt Regency Baltimore)

Host: 30th Conference on Climate Variability and Change, 24th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, and the 16th Conference on Artificial Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences

Chair: Dan Collins, NOAA/CPC

10:30 AM

5B.1

Building Seasonal Predictions of Western United States Snowpack

Sarah Kapnick, GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and X. Yang, G. A. Vecchi, T. L. Delworth, R. Gudgel, S. Malyshev, P. C. D. Milly, E. Shevliakova, and S. Underwood

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

5B.2

SST Errors Growth in the Tropical Pacific Ocean from High Resolution Coupled Model

Isabel Porto Da Silveira, Miami, FL; and P. Zuidema and B. P. Kirtman

Recorded Presentation

Handout (8.2 MB)

11:00 AM

5B.3

Seasonal Prediction Skill of Northern Extratropical Surface Temperature Driven by the Stratosphere

Liwei Jia, Innovim/NWS/NCEP/CPC, College Park, MD; and X. Yang, G. A. Vecchi, R. Gudgel, T. L. Delworth, S. Fueglistaler, P. Lin, A. A. Scaife, S. Underwood, and S. J. Lin

Recorded Presentation

Handout (2.6 MB)

11:15 AM

5B.4

Enhancing Dynamical Seasonal Predictions through Objective Regionalization

Saleh Satti, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD; and B. F. Zaitchik, H. S. Badr, and T. Tadesse

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

5B.5

Response of Summer Sea Ice in the Beaufort-Chukchi Seas to Interannual Variations in the Atmospheric Pacific-Arctic Dipole in the Spring

Minghong Zhang, Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Dartmouth, Canada; and W. Perrie and Z. Long

11:45 AM

5B.6

Observed and Modeled Northern Hemisphere Autumn and Winter Climate Responses to Realistic Tibetan Plateau and Mongolia Snow Anomalies

Qigang Wu, Nanjing Univ., Nanjing, China

Lunch

Session 6

Links Between Large-Scale Circulation and Local Weather

Location: Constellation E (Hyatt Regency Baltimore)

Host: 30th Conference on Climate Variability and Change, 24th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, and the 16th Conference on Artificial Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences

Chair: Nathaniel C. Johnson, NOAA/CPC

1:30 PM

6.1

Evaluation of CMIP5 Model Fidelity in Producing Large-Scale Meteorological Patterns Conducive to Extremes over the Northwestern United States

Alex Sweeney, Portland State University, Portland, OR; and P. Loikith and B. R. Lintner

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

6.2

A Cross-Timescale Diagnostic Framework for Coupled Circulation Models

Ángel G. Muñoz, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and X. Yang, G. A. Vecchi, A. W. Robertson, and W. F. Cooke

Recorded Presentation

Handout (11.9 MB)

2:00 PM

6.3

The Impact of SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) On The Extreme Variability of Snowfall Climatology in Boston and Along The Northeast Urban Corridor of the United States

Jonathan Forest Byrne Jr., Boston, MA

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (381.0 kB)

Handout (381.0 kB)

2:15 PM

6.4

The Influence of Recurrent Modes of Climate Variability on the Occurrence of Monthly Temperature Extremes over South America

Judah Detzer, Portland State University, Portland, OR; and P. Loikith, C. R. Mechoso, A. Barkhordarian, and K. Lee

Recorded Presentation

Conference Adjourns

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