3 Prediction of the El Nino and Associated Climate Fluctuations Using the Perigees Per Year

Friday, 28 July 2017
Atrium (Hyatt Regency Baltimore)
Albert R. Boehm, Retired, Huntsville, AL

Perigee is the point that the moon in it’s elliptical orbit comes closest to earth. An Anomalistic Month is from Perigee to Perigee and is equal to 27.5 days. At the very first AMS Prob and Stat meeting in Hartford, Glen Brier showed a remarkable relation between the perigee and the zonal wind.

The onset of the El Nino has been found to occur when the Trade Wind which is a Zonal wind decreases allowing less upwelling of the ocean along the Chilean coast thus increasing the SST (Sea Surface Temperature). Teleconnections have been found between rainfall in California and severe weather in Florida.

We found that a 13 perigee year proceeded by two 14 perigee years is related to the onset of El Nino. This relationship had a Tetrachoric correlation to 0.4+ and the null hypothesis of no relation had a chi square that was very significant.

Since the number of perigees can be calculated well in advance the onset of the El Nino can be predicted many years in advance as well as rainfall in California and severe weather in Florida

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