Benchmark Statistical Model for Seasonal Prediction of Temperature and Precipitation

We present methodology and verification results for a cross-validated regression model predicting seasonal temperature and precipitation anomalies using CPC Consolidated El Niño 3.4 forecast and 15-yr OCN trend as predictors. Results indicate modest model skill for seasonal temperature anomalies in El Niño-sensitive regions but much lower skill for precipitation. This model will serve as a benchmark for forecast skill as we work to develop a hybrid statistical-dynamical model for seasonal prediction of temperature and precipitation.