Session 3B Ensemble and Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasting Methods

Friday, 28 July 2017: 1:30 PM-3:45 PM
Constellation F (Hyatt Regency Baltimore)
Host: 30th Conference on Climate Variability and Change, 24th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, and the 16th Conference on Artificial Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences
Cochairs:
Dan C. Collins, NOAA/CPC, College Park, MD and Nicolas Vigaud, IRI, Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY

Papers:
1:30 PM
3B.1
Multi-model Ensembles with Spatial and Model Dependencies
David Soule, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA
Recorded Presentation

Handout (1.7 MB)

1:45 PM
3B.2
Local Diagnostics to Assess the Performance of Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction Systems
Elizabeth A. Satterfield, NRL, Monterey, CA
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM
3B.3
Adaptive Ensemble Climate Simulations
Alicia Sanchez Lorente, Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain; and A. Sanchez Lorente
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM
3B.4
Multi-model Ensembling and Calibration of S2S Precipitation Forecasts over North America
Nicolas Vigaud, IRI, Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY; and A. W. Robertson and M. K. Tippett
Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM
3B.5
The Probability Anomaly Correlation and Calibration of Probabilistic Forecasts
Huug van den Dool, CPC, College Park, MD
Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM
3B.6
Skillful Climate Forecasts of the Tropical Indo-Pacific using Model-based Analogs
Hui Ding, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, and NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and M. Newman, M. Alexander, and A. Wittenberg

3:00 PM
3B.7
Application of a Hybrid Statistical-Dynamical Prediction System to Seasonal Forecasts of North American Temperature
Sarah E. Strazzo, Innovim, LLC, Greenbelt, MD; and D. C. Collins, Q. J. Wang, and A. D. Schepen
Recorded Presentation

Handout (4.8 MB)

3:15 PM
3B.8
Calibration of Ensemble Climate Forecasts by Weighted Linear Regression
David A. Unger, Innovim/CPC/NCEP/NWS, College Park, MD; and D. C. Collins
Recorded Presentation

3:30 PM
3B.9
On the Potential Forecast of Extremes in Seasonal Temperatures using a Multi-Model Ensemble (MME)
Dan C. Collins, NOAA, College Park, MD; and E. J. Becker
Recorded Presentation

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner
See more of: 30th Conference on Climate Variability and Change, 24th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, and the 16th Conference on Artificial Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences
<< Previous Session | Next Session >>