2B.1 The NOAA/MAPP Program Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Task Force

Friday, 28 July 2017: 10:30 AM
Constellation F (Hyatt Regency Baltimore)
Heather M. Archambault, NOAA, Princeton, NJ; and D. Barrie and A. Mariotti

The Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections (MAPP) Program, a grants program of the NOAA/OAR Climate Program Office, has organized an S2S Prediction Task Force to coordinate MAPP-funded S2S research and transition activities. The goal of this Task Force is to advance NOAA and the Nation’s capability to produce skillful predictions of extremes such as drought, heat waves, and flooding at extended lead times. Through a variety of activities, the 40+ member Task Force is investigating how different configurations of a model prediction system influence the skill of potential sources of S2S predictability -- phenomena and feedbacks that include the Madden Julian Oscillation, atmospheric blocking, troposphere-stratosphere interactions, and land surface- and ocean mesoscale eddy-atmosphere feedbacks. In addition, the Task Force includes the investigators leading the Subseasonal Prediction Experiment, SubX, a two-year interagency experiment to evaluate predictions from single-model and multi-model ensembles for potential utility as a National Weather Service operational tool. This presentation will provide an overview of the Task Force mission, associated research and transition projects, and overarching science themes.
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