Simulation of historical stratospheric temperature trends by the GFDL coupled atmosphere-ocean models

Historical (1861-present) stratospheric temperature trends have been simulated using the GFDL coupled atmosphere-land-ocean models (CM2.0 and CM2.1). Forcing agents include well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGGs), tropospheric and stratospheric ozone, tropospheric aerosols, solar insolation, volcanoes and changes in land cover. Multi-member ensembles are employed to assess the effects of model variability. The relative roles of the forcing agents are explored in additional historical simulations with natural, anthropogenic and WMGG+ozone changes. Recent (1979 to present) stratospheric temperature trends from the simulations are compared with observations and with results from previous simulations using the GFDL atmospheric model (AM2).