Impacts and solutions of increasing heat on humans and ecosystems- a multi disciplinary identification of gaps in the research area

Impacts and solutions of increasing heat on humans and ecosystems- a multi disciplinary identification of gaps in the research area.

Johanna Alkan Olsson*, Karin Lindström, Tord Kjellström, Erik Swietlicki, Petter Pilesjö Markku Rummukainen, Elisabeth Dahlholm Hornyanszky, Catharina Sternudd, Kristina Jakobsson, Per-Olof Östergren, Eja Pedersen, Pernilla Gooch, Lennart Olsson, Per Becker, Sören Höjgård

Centre for Environmental and Climate Research Lind University Sweden Sölvegatan 37, 223 62 Lund Sweden

Mail of contact person: Johanna.alkan.olsson@cec.lu.se

There are several scientific indications that heat is going to become the next big societal and scientific challenge. The earth's climate is changing in an accelerating pace and the link between climate change and increasing average global temperature is well established. The latest AR5 report on the physical science basis (IPCC, 2013) states that not only the average temperature has risen, but also the number of warm days and nights has increased. The frequency of heat waves has likely increased in some parts of the world, for example Europe. These trends will continue (Rummukainen 2012; 2013), with widespread and ever more negative effects on populations, societies, animal health and terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems (Baker, 2008; Allen et.al., 2010; Andre et.al., 2011).

Climate change affects and is already affecting living environments and our societies in multiple of ways, either directly or indirectly, touching on a wide range of societal issues such as, food and water security, human health, work housing and urban environments, livelihood and vulnerability, human rights, mobility and migration, gender equality, attitudes and behaviour. An increased integrated understanding of these issues combined with an improved modelling of heat at the local and regional level and an assessment of the economic and societal costs of increase heat is imperative to address the heat challenge.

Existing policies and social protection systems are inadequate to enhance resilience and adaptive capacity and to mitigate negative climate change impacts. New approaches are needed both in relation to policy, technical solutions as well as in relation to how we plan and develop our societies.

Despite the potential negative effects and dilemmas related to societal developments we know that humans and human societies have a capacity to adapt to environmental stresses including extreme heat. To do so, however, it is essential that we are able bring together the benefits from increasingly detailed foresights and downscaling, availability of effective solutions both technical and social and, not least, action to reduce exposure and the potential impacts of heat on especially vulnerable groups.

This paper gives an account of a trans-disciplinary project (around 20 different disciplines) financed by Lund University, Sweden with the aim to increase the understanding of and solutions to the impacts of increasing heat, at the local level, resulting from anthropogenic climate change and thereby encourage new cross-disciplinary research ideas focused on finding solutions addressing this problem.

The project is guided by three overarching integrative research questions; • How does heat stress influence ecosystems and human life today and how will it influence it tomorrow. • How do societies and individuals cope with heat in their everyday lives, for example when confronting a heat wave or general seasonal heat increase? • How can we mitigate and adapt to increasing extreme heat stress in the future?

The used method is a multidisciplinary dialogue, which aim to develop a multifaceted understanding and answer to the above mentioned research questions. To ensure these dialogue with a sustained as well as deepened multifaceted understanding the project engage in three research faces where phase one focuses on heat issues which consist of bringing up heat related issues from a disciplinary perspective and discuss it in a multidisciplinary context. The next phase focuses on four case studies, Öresund region a part of South Sweden and Denmark, Istanbul, Turkey, Chennai, India and Lake Victoria Region, Afrika. The case studies will be supported by local measurement of heat in the case reagion which will assisst in developing a solid bassis for analysis of the heat challenges facing each specific case area. The project will interact with researchers as well as policymakers in the case regaions.

Expected results of the project is the development a joint matrix, “a multi faceted answer” to the research questions as well as testing and adjusting this matrix to four different specific geographical and cultural context. The main reason for doing this is to deepen the understanding of the more detailed answer as to what heat stress is, how does our societies cope with it and which are the potential for adapting to it in a longer perspective. The multidisciplinary approach, will create a better basis for the development of future international research on heat stress as well as recommendations of how our societies may need to act to handle the risk of a future increased heat.

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