J3.8
A methodology for adjusting error estimates during disaggregation of seasonal forecasts
Jeanne M. Schneider, USDA-ARS, El Reno, OK
The NOAA Climate Prediction Center is producing a monthly suite of climate forecasts, including three-month outlooks for temperature, precipitation, and degree days for an entire year in advance. These outlooks have potential value in support of risk-based decision making in agriculture and natural resource management. Unfortunately, the forecasts are generated for equal-area regions that represent one or more climate divisions, each about (380 km)2. Given our knowledge of significant climatological variations at smaller scales (sub-divisional), it seems reasonable to disaggregate the outlooks accordingly. As part of this effort, we are developing a methodology to track concurrent changes in the error (uncertainty) of the forecast. This paper will describe our initial methodology.
Joint Session 3, Climate forecasting (Joint between 15th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences and 12th Conference on Applied Climatology)
Thursday, 11 May 2000, 8:40 AM-11:59 AM
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