Observed trends in the intensity of daily precipitation over the UK

Analysis of climate extremes over Europe has been hindered by difficulties in accessing daily-resolution data sets with adequate spatial coverage. An analysis of over one hundred UK daily precipitation records covering the period 1961 to 1995 indicates an increase in the proportion of winter precipitation being provided by the heaviest events, while the reverse is found in summer. The method is data adaptive, accounting for the dependence of precipitation characteristics on location and time of the year. Techniques will also be presented (i) to identify spatial variations in the intensity trends, (ii) to compare with data sets with longer temporal, but reduced spatial, coverage, and (iii) to quantify links with atmospheric circulation changes.