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Monday, 8 May 2000

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11:30 AM-2:00 PM: Monday, 8 May 2000


1
Short Course Registration

1
Short Course Registration

1:30 PM-5:00 PM: Monday, 8 May 2000


1
Short Course on Climate-Change Detection

1:30 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 8 May 2000


1
Conference Registration

1
Conference Registration

1
Short Course on Climate-Change Detection

Tuesday, 9 May 2000

Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | top

7:30 AM-5:00 PM: Tuesday, 9 May 2000


1
Conference Registration continues through Thursday, 11 May

1
Conference registration continues through Thursday, 11 May

9:00 AM-10:20 AM: Tuesday, 9 May 2000


Joint Session 1
Downscaling (Joint between 15th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospherice Sciences and 12th Conference on Applied Climatology)
Hosts: (Joint between the 15th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences; and the 12th Conference on Applied Climatology )
Organizer: Kenneth Kunkel, ISWS
9:00 AM
J1.1
Downscaling Relationships for Summer Heavy and Widespread Rain Events in the U.S. Midwest
David A. R. Kristovich, ISWS, Champaign, IL; and N. E. Westcott, K. E. Kunkel, and X. Z. Liang

9:20 AM
J1.2
Synoptic circulation classification and downscaling for the Midwestern United States
J. T. Schoof, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN; and S. C. Pryor

9:40 AM
J1.3
Statistical downscaling of United States regional climate from transient GCM scenarios
William M. Putman, ORNL, Oak Ridge, TN; and J. B. Drake and G. Ostrouchov

10:00 AM
J1.4
Signature of changing wave climate in the North Sea
Arnt Pfizenmayer, GKSS Research Center, Geesthacht, Germany

9:00 AM-12:10 PM: Tuesday, 9 May 2000


Session 1a
Let It Snow (Parallel with Sessions 1B and J1)
Host: 12th Conference on Applied Climatology
Organizer: Nolan J. Doesken, Colorado State University
9:00 AM
1a.1
The National Climate Extremes Committee's Evaluation of the Reported 1,140 Inch National Seasonal Snowfall Record at the Mount Baker, Washington Ski Area
Robert J. Leffler, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and A. Horvitz, M. Changery, R. Downs, K. T. Redmond, and G. Taylor

9:20 AM
1a.2
A comparison of modeled, remotely sensed and measured snow water equivalent in the northern Great Plains
Thomas L. Mote, University of Georgia, Athens, GA; and A. J. Grundstein and J. Dyer

9:40 AM
1a.3
Modeling Snowfall Climatologies Using a Mesoscale Model
Matthew K. Doggett, Air Force Combat Climatology Center, Asheville, NC

10:00 AM
1a.4
Using the Special Sensor Microwave Imager to Monitor Liquid Water Near the Surface
Alan Basist, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and C. Williams, N. Grody, and R. Thomas

10:20 AM
1a.5
Weekly Northern Hemisphere Snow Maps: 1966-1999
David A. Robinson, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ

10:40 AM
1a.6
Comparison of seasonal snowfall among the Great Lakes snowbelts
Molly Delaney, Kent State University, Kent, OH; and T. W. Schmidlin

11:00 AM
1a.7
Continental-scale snow cover anomalies and air mass frequencies and characteristics across eastern North America
Daniel J. Leathers, University of Delaware, Newark, DE

11:20 AM
1a.4x
Coffee Break

9:00 AM-10:20 AM: Tuesday, 9 May 2000


Session 1b
Creation of a U.S. Climate Reference Network (Parallel with Sessions 1A and J1)
Host: 12th Conference on Applied Climatology
Organizer: Robert G. Quayle, NOAA/NCDC
9:00 AM
1b.1
U.S. Climate Reference Network, Part 1: Overview
Richard R. Heim Jr., NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and C. B. Baker, G. K. Rutledge, C. E. Duchon, R. J. Leffler, A. H. Horvitz, G. Schaefer, K. G. Hubbard, and M. R. Helfert

9:20 AM
1b.2
U.S. Climate Reference Network, Part 2: Instrumentation
Claude E. Duchon, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and C. B. Baker, K. G. Hubbard, R. R. Heim Jr., D. Mannarano, and T. J. Lockhart

9:40 AM
1b.3
U.S. Climate Reference Network, Part 3: Station Selection Criteria and Station Siting Standards
C. Bruce Baker, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and D. R. Easterling, R. R. Heim Jr., C. E. Duchon, M. J. Janis, and M. R. Helfert

10:00 AM
1b.4
U.S. Climate Reference Network, Part 4: Metadata
Jeffrey D. Arnfield, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and C. E. Duchon, C. B. Baker, R. G. Quayle, R. R. Heim Jr., K. D. Robbins, M. J. Janis, and A. H. Horvitz

10:20 AM-10:50 AM: Tuesday, 9 May 2000


Coffee Break

Coffee Break

10:50 AM-11:50 AM: Tuesday, 9 May 2000


Session 1
Data display and analysis
Host: 15th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Organizer: Roman Krzysztofowicz, University of Virginia
10:50 AM
1.1
A Multiple File Analysis Tool for Meteorology
Alfred S. Beebe, NASA/Science & Engineering Services, Inc., Wallops Island, VA

11:10 AM
1.2
Interactive Visualization Tools for Exploring Multivariate Atmospheric Science Data
Timothy J. Brown, DRI, Reno, NV; and D. Cook and M. Macêdo

1.3
The Cornu Criterion - A Valid Test for Normality of Small Sample Sizes

11:31 AM
1.4
How not to fool yourself with statistics
Albert R. Boehm, Raytheon STX Corporation, Huntsville, AL

10:50 AM-12:10 PM: Tuesday, 9 May 2000


Session 2
Climate Service Issues
Host: 12th Conference on Applied Climatology
Organizer: Keith L. Eggleston, Northeast Regional Climate Center
10:50 AM
2.1
A generalized method for accessing western U.S. climate data and products
Greg D. McCurdy, DRI, Reno, NV; and K. T. Redmond

11:10 AM
2.2
NOAA National Data Center Climate Data Online for use in research, applications, and education
J. Neal Lott, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and D. D. Anders

11:30 AM
2.3
Integrating non-climate factors into a natural gas purchasing decision: Learning from the user
David Changnon, Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, IL; and M. Ritsche

11:50 AM
2.4
Reassessing climate information and services: Part 2
Tamara G. Creech, Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, IL

11:50 AM-1:40 PM: Tuesday, 9 May 2000


Lunch

12:10 PM-1:40 PM: Tuesday, 9 May 2000


Lunch

1:40 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 9 May 2000


Session 3a
Quality Control of Climate Data (Parallel with Sessions 3B and 3C)
Host: 12th Conference on Applied Climatology
Organizer: David A. Robinson, Rutgers University
1:40 PM
3a.1
Quality control of Snotel data
Kelly T. Redmond, DRI, Reno, NV

2:00 PM
3a.2
Soil Temperature Quality Control for USDA NRCS SM/ST Network: Method and Products
Q. Steve Hu, Univ. of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and G. Schaefer, C. J. Hays, and P. Pasteris

2:20 PM
3a.3
A comparison of rooftop and surface temperature observations
Brian Griffith, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and T. B. McKee, N. J. Doesken, and R. J. Leffler

2:40 PM
3a.4
Are the data you rely on valid?
William H. Haggard, Consulting Meteorolgist, Asheville, NC


Session 3b
Applications of Climate Data to Aviation (Parallel with Sessions 3A and 3C)
Host: 12th Conference on Applied Climatology
Organizer: Brian K. Eder, NOAA/ARL
1:40 PM
3b.1
An Examination of Ceiling and Wind Event Frequency Modeling by the Advanced Climate Modeling and Environmental Simulations (ACMES)
Jonathan S. Thompson, Air Force Combat Climatology Center, Asheville, NC

2:00 PM
3b.2
Designing an aviation weather climatology and meteorological database in the context of an aviation risk model
Diana L. B. Boyd, NCAR, Boulder, Colorado; and B. G. Brown, D. Osborne, and D. Ross

2:20 PM
3b.3
The Air Force Combat Climatology Worldwide Narrative Climatology program
Kenneth R. Walters Sr., Air Force Combat Climatology Center, Asheville, NC

2:40 PM
3b.4
Using Climatology to Improve Weather Forecasting for America's Space Program
William P. Roeder, 45th Weather Squadron, Patrick AFB, FL; and D. E. Harms

2:00 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 9 May 2000


Session 3c
Fire Weather Applications (Parallel with Sessions 3A and 3B)
Host: 12th Conference on Applied Climatology
Organizer: Greg Johnson, USDA-NRCS National Water and Climate Center
2:00 PM
3c.1
Climate Impacts on the 1999 U.S. Wildfire Season
Timothy J. Brown, DRI, Reno, NV; and B. L. Hall and S. Gregory

2:20 PM
3c.2
Climatology of Wind and Mixing Height in the United States
Sue A. Ferguson, Forestry Sciences Laboratory, Seattle, WA

2:40 PM
3c.3
A mixing height climatology for the western U.S.
Matthew G. Fearon, DRI, Reno, NV; and T. J. Brown

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Tuesday, 9 May 2000


1
Coffee Break

Coffee Break

3:30 PM-4:49 PM: Tuesday, 9 May 2000


Session 2
Spatial and space-time statistics
Host: 15th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Organizer: G. Louis Smith, NASA/LRC
3:30 PM
2.1
The use of principal component analysis for climatological inference
Michael B. Richman, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and R. H. Compagnucci

3:50 PM
2.2
A method for climate signal estimation from incomplete data
Steven C. Sherwood, Universities Space Research Association, Seabroook, MD

2.3
Modes of Optimal Persistence in SST and Height Fields

4:10 PM
2.4
Statistical Analysis of Innovation Vectors
Qin Xu, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and L. Wei and A. VanTuyl

4:30 PM
2.5
A non-correlation-based approach to the search for anthropogenic climate change signals
David R Legates, University of Delaware, Newark, DE; and R. E. Davis, O. F. Frauenfeld, and S. M. Robeson

3:30 PM-5:10 PM: Tuesday, 9 May 2000


Session 4a
Detection and Adjustment of Non-climatic Biases in Observed Data (Parallel with Session 4B)
Host: 12th Conference on Applied Climatology
Organizer: David R. Easterling, NOAA/NCDC
3:30 PM
4a.1
Errors in daily minimum and maximum air temperature induced by observation time
Michael J. Janis, Southeast Regional Climate Center, Columbia, SC

3:50 PM
4a.2
Time of observation and estimation of daily solar radiation for the Northern Great Plains
Rezaul Mahmood, Univ. of Nebraska, Lincoln, Nebraska; and K. G. Hubbard

4:10 PM
4a.3
A method to estimate missing daily extreme temperatures
Robert J. Allen, Northeast Regional Climate Center, Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY; and A. T. DeGaetano

4:30 PM
4a.4
Homogenized daily temperatures for trend analyses in extremes over Canada
Lucie A. Vincent, MSC, Downsview, ON, Canada; and X. Zhang, B. R. Bonsal, and W. D. Hogg

4:50 PM
4a.5
Latitudinal and Seasonal Dependent Zenith Angle Corrections for Geostationary Satellite IR Brightness Temperatures
Robert J. Joyce, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Washington, DC; and J. Janowiak and G. Huffman

3:30 PM-4:50 PM: Tuesday, 9 May 2000


Session 4b
Microclimatic Applications (Parallel with Session 4A)
Host: 12th Conference on Applied Climatology
Organizer: Sue Ferguson, USDA - Forest Service
3:30 PM
4b.1
Annual Energy Balance of a Midwestern No-Till Corn and Soybean Field
Steven E. Hollinger, ISWS, Champaign, IL; and T. P. Meyers

3:50 PM
4b.2
Estimating the roughness of cities and sheltered country
Alan G. Davenport, University of Western Ontario, London, ON, Canada; and C. S. B. Grimmond, T. R. Oke, and J. Wieringa

4:10 PM
4b.3
On estimating surface energy fluxes from single level climatological observations
Michael J. Brennan, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and D. S. Niyogi and S. Raman

4:30 PM
4b.4
A comparison of water and carbon fluxes from two identical landuse sites within the same model domain
Tilden P. Meyers, NOAA/ATDD, Oak Ridge, TN; and S. Hollinger

4:50 PM-4:50 PM: Tuesday, 9 May 2000


Sessions end for the day

5:10 PM-5:10 PM: Tuesday, 9 May 2000


Sessions end for the day

Wednesday, 10 May 2000

Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | top

8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 10 May 2000


Session 5b
ASOS ISSUES (Parallel with Session 5A)
Host: 12th Conference on Applied Climatology
Organizer: David Changnon, Northern Illinois University
8:00 AM
5b.1
A summary of wind climate continuity with ASOS
Thomas J. Lockhart, Meteorological Standards Institute, Fox Island, WA

8:20 AM
5b.2
Climate data continuity with ASOS in precipitation and temperature
Thomas B. McKee, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and N. J. Doesken, J. Kleist, C. A. Davey, and N. L. Canfield

8:40 AM
5b.3
Continuity of precipitation amount observations with automation
Ewa J. Milewska, AES, Downsview, ON, Canada

9:00 AM
5b.4
Impact of ASOS on 1969–1998 Normals in Lincoln, Nebraska
Chad M. Kauffman, Univ. of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE

9:20 AM
5b.5
Development of 1971–2000 climate normals and supplemental climate summaries
Richard Cram, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC

9:40 AM
5b.6
The ASOS Climate Data Continuity Project: Its Beginnings and a Few Conclusions
Norman L. Canfield, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD

8:20 AM-11:59 AM: Wednesday, 10 May 2000


Session 5a
Observed Variations in Temperature and Precipitation (Parallel with Session 5B)
Host: 12th Conference on Applied Climatology
Organizer: Art DeGaetano, Northeast Regional Climate Center
8:20 AM
5a.1
Secular trends in the size of extreme precipitation events over the eastern United States
Charles E. Konrad, Univ. of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC

8:40 AM
5a.2
Extremes of Canadian Multi-Day Precipitation Accumulation
Éva Mekis, MSC, Downsview, ON, Canada; and X. Zhang

5a.3
Observed trends in the intensity of daily precipitation over the UK

9:00 AM
5a.4
Precipitation and Temperature Trends in the context of Global Warming: An Exploratory Analysis
Madhav L. Khandekar, Consulting Meteorologist, Unionville, ON, Canada

9:20 AM
5a.5
Variability and trends in extreme daily temperatures for the United States
David R. Easterling, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC

9:40 AM
5a.6
Renewed study on Shanghai's warming process during the past 100 years by comparing the changes between mean, maximum, and minimum temperature
Zhihong Jiang, Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China

10:00 AM
5a.7
Recent modulation of the seasonal cycle
Craig J. Wallace, Univ. of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom; and T. J. Osborn

10:20 AM
5a.8
Anticyclonic Warming
Patrick J. Michaels, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA; and P. C. Knappenberger, S. D. Gawtry, and R. E. Davis

10:40 AM
5a.9
Day-to-Day Mean Temperature Variabilit—A Monitoring Tool
Richard R. Heim Jr., NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and M. J. Menne

11:00 AM
5a.10
The "January thaw" is a statistical phantom
Christopher M. Godfrey, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY; and D. S. Wilks

11:20 AM
5a.6x
Coffee Break

8:40 AM-9:58 AM: Wednesday, 10 May 2000


Session 3
Time series
Host: 15th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Organizer: Rick Katz, NCAR
8:40 AM
3.1
Trend detectability in climatic parameters
Elizabeth C. Weatherhead, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and G. C. Reinsel, G. C. Tiao, A. J. Stevermer, and J. E. Frederick

3.2
Trend estimation in vector time series with long-range dependence

3.3
Using the Wavelet Analysis in Estimating Trend Functions

9:00 AM
3.4
Singular Spectral Analysis (SSA) applied to Portuguese temperature and precipitation amount series
Silvia L. Antunes, Meteorological Institute, Lisbon, Portugal; and H. O. Pires and A. Rocha

9:20 AM
3.5
Oceanic influence on the precipitation of the south-east of Venezuela
Lelys Guenni, Universidad Simon Bolivar, Caracas, Venezuela; and B. Sanso and L. Betancourt

9:40 AM
3.6
Theoretical Relationship between SSA and MESA
Jiang Zhihong, Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China; and D. Yuguo

10:00 AM-10:40 AM: Wednesday, 10 May 2000


Coffee Break

Coffee Break

10:40 AM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 10 May 2000


Session 4
Short-range forecasting
Host: 15th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Organizer: Dan Wilks, Cornell University
10:40 AM
4.1
Developing local model output statistics (MOS) equations to predict temperature and probability of precipitation
Christopher T Collins, NOAA/NWS, Newport, NC

11:00 AM
4.2
AVN-Guided MOS Weather Forecasts for Europe Based on Regression Screening and Cross Validation
Christian Schoelzel, Bonn University, Bonn, Germany; and A. Hense and J. Klassen

11:20 AM
4.3
A Bayesian hierarchical approach to model output statistics
David J. Nott, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; and W. T. M. Dunsmuir, R. Kohn, and F. Woodcock

11:40 AM
4.4
Wind forecasts for the 2000 Olympic Games in Sydney with a Focus on Sydney Harbour
Elly Spark, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Sydney, NSW, Australia; and W. T. M. Dunsmuir and S. K. Kim

12:00 PM
4.5
Comparison of CART and MDA for statistical sky cover forecast Models
William R. Burrows, Meteorological Service of Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada; and L. J. Wilson

12:20 PM
4.6
Flexible discriminant techniques for forecasting clear-air turbulence
Claudia Tebaldi, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. Nychka, B. G. Brown, and R. Sharman

4.7
Conditional Tornado Probabilities from RUC-2 Forecasts

1:00 PM
4.4x
Lunch


Session 6
Soil Moisture
Host: 12th Conference on Applied Climatology
Organizer: Phil Pasteris, USDA-NRCS National Water and Climate Center
10:40 AM
6.1
Analysing CO2 and soil moisture Variability in a Climatological Perspective
Devdutta S. Niyogi, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and S. Raman and K. Alapaty

11:00 AM
6.2
Estimation of soil moisture gradients during Hurricane Fran (1996) and their influence on enhanced convection inland
Jennifer Kehoe, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and S. Raman and D. S. Niyogi

11:20 AM
6.3
Daily soil moisture measurement network of the Northern Great Plains: sensors, their calibration and Applications
Kenneth G. Hubbard, High Plains Climate Center, Lincoln, NE; and R. Mahmood and Q. Hou

11:40 AM
6.4
Developing SMASH: (Soil Moisture Analysis using a Statistical Heuristic Model) for Mapping soil moisture variability using surface climatological data
Devdutta S. Niyogi, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and J. Kehoe and S. Raman

12:00 PM
6.5
Persistence and trend of modeled soil moisture in Oklahoma
Tracy L. DeLiberty, University of Delaware, Newark, PA; and D. R. Legates

12:20 PM
6.6
Recommendations for urban tree soil volume and irrigation frequency using a soil moisture budgeting approach
Stephen R. Hudson, Northeast Regional Climate Center, Ithaca, NY; and A. T. DeGaetano

12:40 PM
6.7
Application of a soil water balance model to historical soil moisture estimation over eastern Nebraska
Kenneth G. Hubbard, High Plains Climate Center, Lincoln, NE; and R. Mahmood

1:00 PM
6.4x
Lunch

2:30 PM-3:00 PM: Wednesday, 10 May 2000


Coffee Break

Coffee Break

3:00 PM-4:19 PM: Wednesday, 10 May 2000


Session 7
Air Pollution Applications (Parallel with Joint Session J2)
Host: 12th Conference on Applied Climatology
Organizer: Ellen J. Cooter, NOAA/ARL
3:00 PM
7.1
Spatial Interpolation of Nonstationary Environmental Processes
Montserrat Fuentes, North Carolina State University and EPA, Raleigh, NC; and P. L. Finkelstein

7.2
Spatial and temporal modeling of hourly ozone levels for assessment of GChM modeling

3:20 PM
7.3
A hybrid mesoscale-gaussian plume approach to air pollution analysis in heterogeneous regions
Hasnah Hasan, State Climate Office of North Carolina, Raleigh, NC; and D. S. Niyogi, S. Raman, and R. Gilliam

3:40 PM
7.4
An aggregation and episode selection scheme for EPA's Models-3 CMAQ
Brian K. Eder, NOAA/ARL, Research Triangle Park, NC; and R. D. Cohn, S. K. LeDuc, and R. L. Dennis

4:00 PM
7.5
Aerosol climatologies from a numerical model and climate observations
Helen C. Power, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC

3:00 PM-4:40 PM: Wednesday, 10 May 2000


Joint Session 2
Weather Derivatives (Joint between 15th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences and 12th Conference on Applied Climatology
Hosts: (Joint between the 15th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences; and the 12th Conference on Applied Climatology )
Organizer: Todd Anderson, Virginia Power
3:00 PM
J2.1
Future weather data needs for the weather derivatives industry
To be announced, Weather Derivatives Industry

3:20 PM
J2.2
Sources of weather data for pricing weather derivatives
To be announced, Weather Derivatives Industry

3:40 PM
J2.3
The financial impact of weather from an energy perspective
To be announced, Weather Derivatives Industry

4:00 PM
J2.4
Weather derivatives: structures and formats
To be announced, Wx Derivatives Industry

4:20 PM
J2.5
Weather risk management using weather derivatives: A case study
To be announced, Weather Derivatives Industry

4:40 PM-4:40 PM: Wednesday, 10 May 2000


Oral Sessions End for the Day

Oral Sessions End for the Day

5:30 PM-7:00 PM: Wednesday, 10 May 2000


Joint Poster Session 1
Joint Poster Viewing with Buffet (Joint between 15th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences and 12th Conference on Applied Climatology)
Hosts: (Joint between the 15th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences; and the 12th Conference on Applied Climatology )
JP1.1
Difference in the secular trend and evolution in seasonal mean minimum and maximum temperatures within several groups of Swiss climatological stations
Patricia Elisabeth Jungo, University of Fribourg, Fribourg, Switzerland

JP1.2
Intraseasonal temperature oscillations in the United States
Richard W. Stimets, Univ. of Massachusetts, Lowell, MA; and K. B. Ahlstrom

JP1.3
A statistical study of climate variability in North Carolina
Ryan P. Boyles, State Climate Office of North Carolina, Raleigh, NC; and S. Raman, K. C. Chhak, A. S. Pratt, and W. M. Sellers

JP1.4
Applying a KZ filter for studying North Carolina temperature and precipitation patterns associated with ENSO
Brian W. Potter, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and S. Raman and D. S. Niyogi

JP1.5
A preliminary evaluation of seasonal climate outlooks using GIS
Gloria Dickie-Forthun, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and S. Meyer

JP1.6
Development of a low pressure index as a proxy for dry season severe weather in florida and its relationship with ENSO
Bartlett C. Hagemeyer, NOAA/NWSFO, Melbourne, FL

JP1.7
A Preliminary Investigation of the Relationship Between Solar Flux and Hurricane Intensity

JP1.8
Preliminary Verification of a Proposed Solar-Terrestrial Relationship with Potential Weekly, Monthly, and Decadal Implications

JP1.9
Midwestern Snow Swaths: Empirical Observations of the Influence of Fresh Snow Cover on Temperature
David Travis, Univ. of Wisconsin, Whitewater, WI; and S. Curran and A. Nielsen

JP1.10
Comparison between cooperative observer data and co-located meteorological tower network in North Carolina
Aaron Sims, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and D. S. Niyogi and S. Raman

JP1.11
Rescue and integration of the Polar Continental Shelf Project data set for the Canadian Arctic Archipelago
David E. Atkinson, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada; and K. Gajewski and B. Alt

JP1.12
ENSO events and daily rainfall in Ecuador
Frédéric Rossel, USDA/ARS, El Reno, OK; and E. Cadier, P. Le Goulven, and R. Calvez

JP1.13
Application of CALMET to the Raleigh-Durham area: A case for denser surface observation to improve model simulations
Robert C. Gilliam, State Climate Office of North Carolina, Raleigh, NC; and S. Raman and D. S. Niyogi

JP1.14
Real-time calibration of WSR-88D precipitation estimates
David R Legates, University of Delaware, Newark, DE; and K. R. Nixon and T. D. Stockdale

JP1.15
Design and implementation of an RF based Weather Station Network
Vinayak K. Parameshwara, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and D. S. Niyogi and S. Raman

JP1.16
Comparison of Scanner and Wide-field-of-view Emitted Radiation Measurements from ERBE NOAA 9 Satellite
T. Dale Bess, NASA/LARC, Hampton, VA; and G. L. Smith and C. Collimore

JP1.17
Effect of local landuse on climate data from an instrumented tower in a remote urban locality

JP1.18
Quality assurance of temperature observations at the National Climatic Data Center
Matthew J. Menne, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and C. E. Duchon

JP1.19
A Java-based web plotting and analysis package for the NC AgNet
Dhaval Thakkar, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and D. S. Niyogi, S. Raman, and V. K. Parameshwara

JP1.20
A statistical analysis of the frequency of extreme meteorological events in Missouri
Preston W. Leftwich, Jr., NOAA/NWS, Kansas City, MO

JP1.21
A random resampling approach to evaluate spatial representativeness of short temperature time-series
David E. Atkinson, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada; and K. Gajewski

JP1.22
Finding Meaning in Chaos

JP1.23
Development of new climate and plant adaptation maps for China
Christopher Daly, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR; and W. Gibson, D. Hannaway, and G. Taylor

JP1.24
Products, reports and analyses from NCDC's Climate Monitoring Group
Thomas R. Ross, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and C. S. Godfrey and R. R. Heim

JP1.25
EVAPORATION TRENDS OVER THE UNITED STATES AND THE FORMER USSR
Valentin S. Golubev, State Hydrological Institute, St. Petersburg, Russia; and N. A. Speranskaya, S. A. Zhuravin, P. Y. Groisman, J. H. Lawrimore, M. J. Menne, T. C. Peterson, and R. W. Malone

Thursday, 11 May 2000

Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | top

8:00 AM-10:20 AM: Thursday, 11 May 2000


Session 8a
Spatial and Temporal Climatologies of Extreme Heat Occurrence (Parallel with Sessions 8B and J3)
Host: 12th Conference on Applied Climatology
Organizer: Keith G. Henderson, Villanova University
8:00 AM
8a.0
Coffee Break

8:20 AM
8a.1
The climate of early 19th century Mississippi
Robert D. Erhardt Jr., U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Mobile, AL

8:40 AM
8a.2
Illinois heat waves 1856–1999
Karen Andsager, ISWS, Champaign, IL; and J. R. Angel

9:00 AM
8a.3
Spatial pattern of a heat index for the coterminous United States and its temporal trends
Jong-Nam Choi, Univ. of Georgia, Athens, GA; and V. Meentemeyer and T. L. Mote

9:20 AM
8a.4
Decadal changes in the frequency of United States heat waves
Peter J. Robinson, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC

9:40 AM
8a.5
Decadal changes in summer mortality in the United States
Robert E. Davis, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA; and P. C. Knappenberger, W. M. Novicoff, and P. J. Michaels

10:00 AM
8a.6
Decadal spatial structure and evolution of extreme temperature in winter and summer over China during the recent 50 years
Zhihong Jiang, Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China

8:20 AM-10:20 AM: Thursday, 11 May 2000


Session 8b
Model derived data (Parallel with Sessions 8A and J3)
Host: 12th Conference on Applied Climatology
Organizer: Mark Carrol, Murray and Trettel, Inc.
8:20 AM
8b.0
Coffee Break

8:40 AM
8b.1
Methods to establish the quality of simulated climatological data produced by numerical mesoscale modeling techniques
Glenn E. Van Knowe, MESO, Inc., Troy, NY; and J. W. Zack, K. T. Waight, P. E. Price, and C. E. Graves

9:00 AM
8b.2
A technique to use observed climatological data to improve the quality of simulated climatological data produced by a numerical mesoscale model
Charles E. Graves, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, MO; and G. E. Van Knowe, J. W. Zack, K. T. Waight, and P. E. Price

9:20 AM
8b.3
Estimation of surface air temperature in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago using a semi-empirical, knowledge-based "topoclimatic" model
David E. Atkinson, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada; and K. Gajewski

9:40 AM
8b.4
A Modeling study of Seabreeze fronts along a complex Coastline
Robert C. Gilliam, State Climate Office of North Carolina, Raleigh, NC; and S. Raman and D. S. Niyogi

10:00 AM
8b.5
An atmospheric modeling system designed to create simulated wind climatologies to support wind-generated power production
John W. Zack, MESO, Inc., Troy, NY; and K. T. Waight, G. E. Van Knowe, and M. D. Bousquet

8:40 AM-11:59 AM: Thursday, 11 May 2000


Joint Session 3
Climate forecasting (Joint between 15th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences and 12th Conference on Applied Climatology)
Hosts: (Joint between the 15th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences; and the 12th Conference on Applied Climatology )
Organizer: W. Matt Briggs, Doubleclick
8:40 AM
J3.1
Is Monsoon Predictability through Statistical Methods decreasing?
R. H. Kripalani, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, Maharashtra, India; and A. Kulkarni

9:00 AM
J3.2
Statistical Associations Between African Rainfall and ENSO-Monsoon Circulations
Mark R. Jury, University of Zululand, KwaDlangezwa, South Africa

J3.3
A Seasonal Climate Forecast Methodology for ITCZ-Associated Rainfall in Eastern Africa

9:20 AM
J3.4
Seasonal Forecasting of UK Winter Storminess
Steve E. George, University College London, Holmbury St. Mary, Surrey, United Kingdom; and M. A. Saunders

9:40 AM
J3.5
Application of Markov Chain Model to Long-Range Temperature Prediction
Stephen F. Mueller, Tennessee Valley Authority, Muscle Shoals, AL; and Q. Mao

10:00 AM
J3.6
Comparative assessment of predictability over mid-latitudinal and tropical climate using statistical models: Example over North Carolina and Indonesia
Orbita Roswintiarti, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and D. S. Niyogi and S. Raman

10:20 AM
J3.7
Altered data distributions conditioned on seasonal climate forecasts
Kelly T. Redmond, DRI, Reno, NV

10:40 AM
J3.8
A methodology for adjusting error estimates during disaggregation of seasonal forecasts
Jeanne M. Schneider, USDA-ARS, El Reno, OK

11:00 AM
J3.9
Disaggregation of the CPC seasonal outlooks
Daniel S. Wilks, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY

11:20 AM
J3.5x
Coffee Break

10:40 AM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 11 May 2000


Session 9
Climate and Climate Impact Indices (Parallel with Joint Session J3)
Host: 12th Conference on Applied Climatology
Organizer: Peter Robinson, University of North Carolina
10:40 AM
9.1
Development of an index to monitor national extreme weather-climate impacts in the United States
Stanley A. Changnon, Changnon Climatologist, Mahomet, IL; and G. J. D. Hewings

11:00 AM
9.2
An estimate of the comprehensive impact of natural disasters
Xiefei Zhi, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany

11:20 AM
9.3
Application of Hourly Temperature-Heat Index as a Measure of Heat Stress
Katherine R. Summers, Univ. of Georgia, Athens, GA; and D. E. Stooksbury

11:40 AM
9.4
Comparison of recently published wind chill scales
Robert G. Quayle, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and M. L. Nicodemus, R. W. Schwerdt, M. Matthews, and L. S. Kalkstein

12:00 PM
9.5
Panel Discussion on Wind Chill Indices
Robert G. Quayle, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC

12:30 PM
9.4x
Lunch

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 11 May 2000


Lunch

1:30 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 11 May 2000


Session 5
Forecast evaluation
Host: 15th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Organizer: Tom Hamill, NCAR
1:30 PM
5.1
The Representativeness of Computed Precipitation Skill Scores
Edward I. Tollerud, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO

1:50 PM
5.2
Confidence intervals for some verification measures - a survey of several methods
Tressa L. Kane, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown

2:10 PM
5.3
Application of the autologistic function with covariates to estimate an icing field
Greg S. Young, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown and J. A. Hoeting

2:30 PM
5.4
Verification of short-term forecasts from the Navy COAMPS over the Mediterranean
Jason E. Nachamkin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. M. Hodur

2:50 PM
5.5
Trends in skill of weather element forecasts in Canada
Richard Verret, EC/Canadian Meteorological Centre, Dorval, PQ, Canada; and G. Richard, G. Hardy, and C. Landry

3:10 PM
5.6
The NWS QPF Verification Program
Brett E. McDonald, NOAA/NWS/OM & UCAR/COMET, Camp Springs, MD; and T. M. Graziano

3:30 PM
5.7
Long-range forecast verification
Normand Gagnon, EC/Canadian Meteorological Centre, Dorval, PQ, Canada; and R. Verret, A. Plante, L. Lefaivre, and G. Richard

3:50 PM
5.8
Evaluation of probabilistic in-flight icing forecasts
Barbara G. Brown, NCAR, Boulder, CO

4:10 PM
5.9
Comparison of different scoring methods for TAFs and other probabilistic forecasts.
Glen R. Harris, UK Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom

4:30 PM
5.4x
Coffee Break


Session 10a
Drought (Parallel with Sessions 10B and 11)
Host: 12th Conference on Applied Climatology
Organizer: Claude Duchon, University of Oklahoma
1:30 PM
10a.1
Results of 23 years of drought monitoring and research in Colorado
Thomas B. McKee, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and N. J. Doesken and J. Kleist

1:50 PM
10a.2
Use of the standardized precipitation index as a water resources monitoring tool in the Northeastern United States
Keith L. Eggleston, Northeast Regional Climate Center, Ithaca, NY

2:10 PM
10a.3
On Using the Standard Precipitation Index to assess soil moisture status in North Carolina.
Aaron Sims, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and D. S. Niyogi and S. Raman

2:30 PM
10a.4
Explaining agricultural drought in the United States Midwest
Michelle A. Buhta, Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, IL

2:50 PM
10a.5
Spatial modes of drought in the Central United States
Michael A. Palecki, Midwestern Climate Center/ISWS, Champaign, IL; and D. J. Leathers

3:10 PM
10a.6
Pacific sea surface temperature and precipitation in the Southern Great Plains
Frederic Rossel, USDA/ARS, El Reno, OK; and J. Garbrecht

3:30 PM
10a.7
A study on dry periods in Atlanta, Georgia
William R. Schaub Jr., NOAA/NWSFO, Peachtree City, GA

3:50 PM
10a.8
Climate variability in southeastern Pennsylvania and its impact on the Schuylkill River basin
Keith G. Henderson, Villanova University, Villanova, PA

4:10 PM
10a.9
Statistical tests for drought tendency investigation and their sensitivity
Sandor Szalai, Hungarian Meteorological Service, Budapest, Hungary; and C. Szinell

4:30 PM
10a.4x
Coffee Break

1:30 PM-2:50 PM: Thursday, 11 May 2000


Session 10b
New Climate Data Products (Parallel with Session 10A)
Host: 12th Conference on Applied Climatology
Organizer: Glen Conner, Western Kentucky University
1:30 PM
10b.1
A new U.S. Climate Atlas
Marc S. Plantico, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and L. A. Goss, C. Daly, and G. Taylor

1:50 PM
10b.2
Development of a 103-year high-resolution climate data set for the conterminous United States
Christopher Daly, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR; and T. Kittel, A. McNab, W. Gibson, A. Royle, D. Nychka, T. Parzybok, N. Rosenbloom, and G. Taylor

2:10 PM
10b.3
Wind climatology issues, and the development of a comprehensive wind data base for wind erosion estimates
Greg Johnson, USDA-NRCS, National Water and Climate Center, Portland, OR

2:30 PM
10b.4
Engineering Weather Data
Michael F. Squires, Air Force Combat Climatology Center, Asheville, NC; and B. Muller and G. J. Shook

2:50 PM-2:50 PM: Thursday, 11 May 2000


Coffee Break

3:20 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 11 May 2000


Session 11
Recent Weather Extremes (Parallel with Session 10A)
Host: 12th Conference on Applied Climatology
Organizer: Richard R. Heim, NOAA/NCDC
3:20 PM
11.1
A Brief Climatology of Extreme Weather and Climate Events in the U.S. and Around the World.
Thomas F. Ross, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and J. N. Lott

3:40 PM
11.2
Hurricane Floyd Rainfall in New Jersey
David A. Robinson, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ

4:00 PM
11.3
An assessment of the regional impacts of the 1997-98 El Niño/La Niña on summer rainfall over China
K.-M. Lau, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and H. Y. Weng

4:20 PM
11.4
Rainfall frequency data—They really do matter
Nolan J. Doesken, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and S. D. Hayes

4:40 PM
11.5
Stochastic modeling of damage associated with extreme weather events
Richard W. Katz, NCAR, Boulder, CO

5:00 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 11 May 2000


Sessions end for the day

Sessions end for the day

Friday, 12 May 2000

Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | top

8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Friday, 12 May 2000


Session 6
Probability and statistics in remote sensing
Host: 15th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Organizer: Doug Nychka, NCAR/GSP
8:00 AM
6.1
Results of a Stochastic Quality Assurance Algorithm for Radiation Budget Data
G. Louis Smith, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Hampton, VA; and T. Wong and K. A. Bush

8:20 AM
6.2
Regional Climatology and Statistics of Surface Radiation Budget
Anne C. Wilber, AS&M, Hampton, VA; and G. L. Smith and P. W. Stackhouse Jr.

8:40 AM
6.3
Optimal Blending of Land Surface Data Sets for Global Coverage
Alan Basist, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and S. Shen and C. Williams

9:00 AM
6.4
Spatial and temporal resolution and accuracy of meteorological parameters
G. Louis Smith, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Hampton, VA

9:20 AM
6.5
Assessing error in global atmospheric temperatures
John R. Christy, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and S. J. Brown

9:40 AM
6.6
Relationship of TRMM precipitation radar observations with TRMM-VISR and TMI observations
C. M. Kishtawal, Space Applications Center, Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India; and M. Tewari


Session 12b
Spatial Variations in Precipitation (Parallel with Session 12A)
Host: 12th Conference on Applied Climatology
Organizer: G. Anderson White, NEXRAD/OSF
8:00 AM
12b.1
Estimation of rainfall intensity and spatial distribution based on data collected by automated weather stations and radar systems
Bogdan Chojnicki, University of Georgia, Griffin, GA; and G. Hoogenboom and G. A. Georgiev

8:20 AM
12b.2
Differences in station and regional precipitation assessment
Frédéric Rossel, USDA/ARS, El Reno, OK; and J. Garbrecht

8:40 AM
12b.3
Microscale rainfall variations as measured by a local volunteer network
Nolan J. Doesken, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and J. F. Weaver

9:00 AM
12b.4
Spatial clustering of climate stations using geographic distance and precipitation parameters
Arthur T. DeGaetano, Northeast Regional Climate Center/Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY

9:20 AM
12b.5
Observations and Regional Climate Model Simulations of Heavy Precipitation Events: A Comparision
Kenneth E. Kunkel, ISWS, Champaign, IL; and K. Ardsager, X. Z. Liang, and J. R. Angel

9:40 AM
12b.6
Trends in tropical cyclone precipitation over the eastern United States
Bryon E. Gleason, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and D. R. Easterling and F. Ren

8:00 AM-10:48 AM: Friday, 12 May 2000


Session 12a
Applications of Climate Data in Agriculture (Parallel with Sessions 12B and 13)
Host: 12th Conference on Applied Climatology
Organizer: Kenneth G. Hubbard, High Plains Climate Center
8:00 AM
12a.1
An Increased Incidence of Wet Years Over the Coterminous United States During 1973–1999
Steven A. Mauget, USDA/ARS, Lubbock, TX; and D. R. Upchurch

12a.2
PDO-ENSO interaction and effects on Midwest climate and corn yields

8:20 AM
12a.3
Cotton environmental stress during the South Carolina growing season
Dale E. Linvill, Clemson University, Clemson, SC

8:40 AM
12a.4
Past and potential future impacts of climate on crop production in the great lakes region
Jeffrey A. Andresen, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI; and G. Alagarswamy and J. T. Ritchie

9:00 AM
12a.5
Climate Impacts on Corn Yield in the North American Corn Belt
Qi Hu, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and G. Buyanovsky and X. Tao

9:20 AM
12a.6
Increasing growing-season length in Illinois as an indicator of climatic change
Scott M. Robeson, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN

9:40 AM
12a.7
Extending the Vegetable Season in Tennessee: An Analysis of Minimum Temperatures and Freeze Probabilities
Joanne Logan, Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN; and D. L. Coffey

12a.8
Thermal trends and increased temperature ranges as related to a shorter growing season in portions of the Great Plains

10:01 AM
12a.9
Chill-hours climatology for the southeastern United States
D. E. Stooksbury, State Climatology Office of Georgia, Athens, GA; and P. L. Davis, R. Weikel, and S. Baker

10:21 AM
12a.7x
Coffee Break

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Friday, 12 May 2000


Coffee Break

Coffee Break

10:30 AM-11:48 AM: Friday, 12 May 2000


Session 7
Ensemble Forecasting
Host: 15th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Organizer: Lawrence Wilson, AES
10:30 AM
7.1
On the Economic Value Of Ensemble Based Weather Forecasts
Zoltan Toth, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/GSC, Camp Springs, MD; and Y. Zhu and R. Wobus

10:50 AM
7.2
A method for recalibrating and combining ensemble forecasts
Simon J. Mason, SIO/UCSD, San Diego, CA; and N. E. Graham and J. S. Galpin

7.3
Evolution of Ensemble-based PDF of Initial States

7.4
A Hybrid Ensemble Kalman Filter / 3D-Variational Analysis Scheme

11:10 AM
7.5
Regime signatures in the phase-space tendencies and PDF of an AGCM
Judith Berner, NCAR, Boulder, CO and Univ. of Bonn, Bonn, Germany; and G. Branstator

11:30 AM
7.6
Simulation of Bay of Bengal cyclone tracks: a multimodel superensemble approach
Mukul Tewari, IBM India Research Laboratory, New Delhi, Delhi, India; and C. M. Kishtawal and P. K. Patra

10:30 AM-12:30 PM: Friday, 12 May 2000


Session 13
Storm Climatologies (Parallel with Session 12A)
Host: 12th Conference on Applied Climatology
Organizer: Kelly Redmond, DRI
10:30 AM
13.1
A heuristic examination of NC winter storm frequency patterns with various ENSO phases
Brian W. Potter, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and S. Raman and D. S. Niyogi

10:50 AM
13.2
North American Cyclones: Relationship to ENSO and NAO
James R. Angel, ISWS, Champaign, IL; and S. A. Isard

11:10 AM
13.3
Texas hurricanes; evaluation of a century of risk
Richard W. Dixon, Texas State University, San Marcos, TX

11:30 AM
13.4
An Investigation of the Dependence of Severe Weather Occurrence in North Carolina on the Strength and Duration of ENSO
Jamie R. Rhome, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and D. S. Niyogi and S. Raman

11:50 AM
13.5
Some-Me Variability: A Climatology of Missouri Tornadoes
Matthew D. Chambers, Univ. of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and A. R. Lupo and F. A. Akyuz

12:10 PM
13.6
Daily probabilities of severe thunderstorms in the United States
Harold E. Brooks, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and M. P. Kay, D. S. Zaras, N. Blais, and B. Flickinger

11:50 AM-11:50 AM: Friday, 12 May 2000


1
Conference Ends

12:30 PM-12:30 PM: Friday, 12 May 2000


Conference Ends

1:00 PM-1:00 PM: Friday, 12 May 2000


1
Guided Tour of the National Climatic Data Center
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