A Seasonal Climate Forecast Methodology for ITCZ-Associated Rainfall in Eastern Africa

A detailed examination is performed of Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) associated rainfall over Eastern Africa. This paper describes a methodology for seasonal climate forecasting which shows reasonably dependable predictability. Rainfall probability decision charts are produced which are simple enough to use in seasonal forecast efforts by a variety of users. These charts provide improved predictive guidelines for forecasting either actual rainfall amounts or for an indication of rainfall trends three months in advance. The predictive relationships are further improved upon towards the extremes of the data distributions and, during certain periods associated with known teleconnections.