1 15th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences

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Monday, 8 May 2000

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11:30 AM-2:00 PM: Monday, 8 May 2000


1
Short Course Registration

1:30 PM-5:00 PM: Monday, 8 May 2000


1
Short Course on Climate-Change Detection

1:30 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 8 May 2000


1
Conference Registration

Tuesday, 9 May 2000

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7:30 AM-5:00 PM: Tuesday, 9 May 2000


1
Conference Registration continues through Thursday, 11 May

9:00 AM-10:20 AM: Tuesday, 9 May 2000


Joint Session 1
Downscaling (Joint between 15th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospherice Sciences and 12th Conference on Applied Climatology)
Hosts: (Joint between the 15th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences; and the 12th Conference on Applied Climatology )
Organizer: Kenneth Kunkel, ISWS
9:00 AM
J1.1
Downscaling Relationships for Summer Heavy and Widespread Rain Events in the U.S. Midwest
David A. R. Kristovich, ISWS, Champaign, IL; and N. E. Westcott, K. E. Kunkel, and X. Z. Liang

9:20 AM
J1.2
Synoptic circulation classification and downscaling for the Midwestern United States
J. T. Schoof, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN; and S. C. Pryor

9:40 AM
J1.3
Statistical downscaling of United States regional climate from transient GCM scenarios
William M. Putman, ORNL, Oak Ridge, TN; and J. B. Drake and G. Ostrouchov

10:00 AM
J1.4
Signature of changing wave climate in the North Sea
Arnt Pfizenmayer, GKSS Research Center, Geesthacht, Germany

10:20 AM-10:50 AM: Tuesday, 9 May 2000


Coffee Break

10:50 AM-11:50 AM: Tuesday, 9 May 2000


Session 1
Data display and analysis
Host: 15th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Organizer: Roman Krzysztofowicz, University of Virginia
10:50 AM
1.1
A Multiple File Analysis Tool for Meteorology
Alfred S. Beebe, NASA/Science & Engineering Services, Inc., Wallops Island, VA

11:10 AM
1.2
Interactive Visualization Tools for Exploring Multivariate Atmospheric Science Data
Timothy J. Brown, DRI, Reno, NV; and D. Cook and M. Macêdo

1.3
The Cornu Criterion - A Valid Test for Normality of Small Sample Sizes

11:31 AM
1.4
How not to fool yourself with statistics
Albert R. Boehm, Raytheon STX Corporation, Huntsville, AL

11:50 AM-1:40 PM: Tuesday, 9 May 2000


Lunch

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Tuesday, 9 May 2000


1
Coffee Break

3:30 PM-4:49 PM: Tuesday, 9 May 2000


Session 2
Spatial and space-time statistics
Host: 15th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Organizer: G. Louis Smith, NASA/LRC
3:30 PM
2.1
The use of principal component analysis for climatological inference
Michael B. Richman, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and R. H. Compagnucci

3:50 PM
2.2
A method for climate signal estimation from incomplete data
Steven C. Sherwood, Universities Space Research Association, Seabroook, MD

2.3
Modes of Optimal Persistence in SST and Height Fields

4:10 PM
2.4
Statistical Analysis of Innovation Vectors
Qin Xu, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and L. Wei and A. VanTuyl

4:30 PM
2.5
A non-correlation-based approach to the search for anthropogenic climate change signals
David R Legates, University of Delaware, Newark, DE; and R. E. Davis, O. F. Frauenfeld, and S. M. Robeson

4:50 PM-4:50 PM: Tuesday, 9 May 2000


Sessions end for the day

Wednesday, 10 May 2000

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8:40 AM-9:58 AM: Wednesday, 10 May 2000


Session 3
Time series
Host: 15th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Organizer: Rick Katz, NCAR
8:40 AM
3.1
Trend detectability in climatic parameters
Elizabeth C. Weatherhead, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and G. C. Reinsel, G. C. Tiao, A. J. Stevermer, and J. E. Frederick

3.2
Trend estimation in vector time series with long-range dependence

3.3
Using the Wavelet Analysis in Estimating Trend Functions

9:00 AM
3.4
Singular Spectral Analysis (SSA) applied to Portuguese temperature and precipitation amount series
Silvia L. Antunes, Meteorological Institute, Lisbon, Portugal; and H. O. Pires and A. Rocha

9:20 AM
3.5
Oceanic influence on the precipitation of the south-east of Venezuela
Lelys Guenni, Universidad Simon Bolivar, Caracas, Venezuela; and B. Sanso and L. Betancourt

9:40 AM
3.6
Theoretical Relationship between SSA and MESA
Jiang Zhihong, Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China; and D. Yuguo

10:00 AM-10:40 AM: Wednesday, 10 May 2000


Coffee Break

10:40 AM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 10 May 2000


Session 4
Short-range forecasting
Host: 15th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Organizer: Dan Wilks, Cornell University
10:40 AM
4.1
Developing local model output statistics (MOS) equations to predict temperature and probability of precipitation
Christopher T Collins, NOAA/NWS, Newport, NC

11:00 AM
4.2
AVN-Guided MOS Weather Forecasts for Europe Based on Regression Screening and Cross Validation
Christian Schoelzel, Bonn University, Bonn, Germany; and A. Hense and J. Klassen

11:20 AM
4.3
A Bayesian hierarchical approach to model output statistics
David J. Nott, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; and W. T. M. Dunsmuir, R. Kohn, and F. Woodcock

11:40 AM
4.4
Wind forecasts for the 2000 Olympic Games in Sydney with a Focus on Sydney Harbour
Elly Spark, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Sydney, NSW, Australia; and W. T. M. Dunsmuir and S. K. Kim

12:00 PM
4.5
Comparison of CART and MDA for statistical sky cover forecast Models
William R. Burrows, Meteorological Service of Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada; and L. J. Wilson

12:20 PM
4.6
Flexible discriminant techniques for forecasting clear-air turbulence
Claudia Tebaldi, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. Nychka, B. G. Brown, and R. Sharman

4.7
Conditional Tornado Probabilities from RUC-2 Forecasts

1:00 PM
4.4x
Lunch

2:30 PM-3:00 PM: Wednesday, 10 May 2000


Coffee Break

3:00 PM-4:40 PM: Wednesday, 10 May 2000


Joint Session 2
Weather Derivatives (Joint between 15th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences and 12th Conference on Applied Climatology
Hosts: (Joint between the 15th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences; and the 12th Conference on Applied Climatology )
Organizer: Todd Anderson, Virginia Power
3:00 PM
J2.1
Future weather data needs for the weather derivatives industry
To be announced, Weather Derivatives Industry

3:20 PM
J2.2
Sources of weather data for pricing weather derivatives
To be announced, Weather Derivatives Industry

3:40 PM
J2.3
The financial impact of weather from an energy perspective
To be announced, Weather Derivatives Industry

4:00 PM
J2.4
Weather derivatives: structures and formats
To be announced, Wx Derivatives Industry

4:20 PM
J2.5
Weather risk management using weather derivatives: A case study
To be announced, Weather Derivatives Industry

4:40 PM-4:40 PM: Wednesday, 10 May 2000


Oral Sessions End for the Day

5:30 PM-7:00 PM: Wednesday, 10 May 2000


Joint Poster Session 1
Joint Poster Viewing with Buffet (Joint between 15th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences and 12th Conference on Applied Climatology)
Hosts: (Joint between the 15th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences; and the 12th Conference on Applied Climatology )
JP1.1
Difference in the secular trend and evolution in seasonal mean minimum and maximum temperatures within several groups of Swiss climatological stations
Patricia Elisabeth Jungo, University of Fribourg, Fribourg, Switzerland

JP1.2
Intraseasonal temperature oscillations in the United States
Richard W. Stimets, Univ. of Massachusetts, Lowell, MA; and K. B. Ahlstrom

JP1.3
A statistical study of climate variability in North Carolina
Ryan P. Boyles, State Climate Office of North Carolina, Raleigh, NC; and S. Raman, K. C. Chhak, A. S. Pratt, and W. M. Sellers

JP1.4
Applying a KZ filter for studying North Carolina temperature and precipitation patterns associated with ENSO
Brian W. Potter, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and S. Raman and D. S. Niyogi

JP1.5
A preliminary evaluation of seasonal climate outlooks using GIS
Gloria Dickie-Forthun, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and S. Meyer

JP1.6
Development of a low pressure index as a proxy for dry season severe weather in florida and its relationship with ENSO
Bartlett C. Hagemeyer, NOAA/NWSFO, Melbourne, FL

JP1.7
A Preliminary Investigation of the Relationship Between Solar Flux and Hurricane Intensity

JP1.8
Preliminary Verification of a Proposed Solar-Terrestrial Relationship with Potential Weekly, Monthly, and Decadal Implications

JP1.9
Midwestern Snow Swaths: Empirical Observations of the Influence of Fresh Snow Cover on Temperature
David Travis, Univ. of Wisconsin, Whitewater, WI; and S. Curran and A. Nielsen

JP1.10
Comparison between cooperative observer data and co-located meteorological tower network in North Carolina
Aaron Sims, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and D. S. Niyogi and S. Raman

JP1.11
Rescue and integration of the Polar Continental Shelf Project data set for the Canadian Arctic Archipelago
David E. Atkinson, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada; and K. Gajewski and B. Alt

JP1.12
ENSO events and daily rainfall in Ecuador
Frédéric Rossel, USDA/ARS, El Reno, OK; and E. Cadier, P. Le Goulven, and R. Calvez

JP1.13
Application of CALMET to the Raleigh-Durham area: A case for denser surface observation to improve model simulations
Robert C. Gilliam, State Climate Office of North Carolina, Raleigh, NC; and S. Raman and D. S. Niyogi

JP1.14
Real-time calibration of WSR-88D precipitation estimates
David R Legates, University of Delaware, Newark, DE; and K. R. Nixon and T. D. Stockdale

JP1.15
Design and implementation of an RF based Weather Station Network
Vinayak K. Parameshwara, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and D. S. Niyogi and S. Raman

JP1.16
Comparison of Scanner and Wide-field-of-view Emitted Radiation Measurements from ERBE NOAA 9 Satellite
T. Dale Bess, NASA/LARC, Hampton, VA; and G. L. Smith and C. Collimore

JP1.17
Effect of local landuse on climate data from an instrumented tower in a remote urban locality

JP1.18
Quality assurance of temperature observations at the National Climatic Data Center
Matthew J. Menne, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and C. E. Duchon

JP1.19
A Java-based web plotting and analysis package for the NC AgNet
Dhaval Thakkar, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and D. S. Niyogi, S. Raman, and V. K. Parameshwara

JP1.20
A statistical analysis of the frequency of extreme meteorological events in Missouri
Preston W. Leftwich, Jr., NOAA/NWS, Kansas City, MO

JP1.21
A random resampling approach to evaluate spatial representativeness of short temperature time-series
David E. Atkinson, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada; and K. Gajewski

JP1.22
Finding Meaning in Chaos

JP1.23
Development of new climate and plant adaptation maps for China
Christopher Daly, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR; and W. Gibson, D. Hannaway, and G. Taylor

JP1.24
Products, reports and analyses from NCDC's Climate Monitoring Group
Thomas R. Ross, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and C. S. Godfrey and R. R. Heim

JP1.25
EVAPORATION TRENDS OVER THE UNITED STATES AND THE FORMER USSR
Valentin S. Golubev, State Hydrological Institute, St. Petersburg, Russia; and N. A. Speranskaya, S. A. Zhuravin, P. Y. Groisman, J. H. Lawrimore, M. J. Menne, T. C. Peterson, and R. W. Malone

Thursday, 11 May 2000

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8:40 AM-11:59 AM: Thursday, 11 May 2000


Joint Session 3
Climate forecasting (Joint between 15th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences and 12th Conference on Applied Climatology)
Hosts: (Joint between the 15th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences; and the 12th Conference on Applied Climatology )
Organizer: W. Matt Briggs, Doubleclick
8:40 AM
J3.1
Is Monsoon Predictability through Statistical Methods decreasing?
R. H. Kripalani, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, Maharashtra, India; and A. Kulkarni

9:00 AM
J3.2
Statistical Associations Between African Rainfall and ENSO-Monsoon Circulations
Mark R. Jury, University of Zululand, KwaDlangezwa, South Africa

J3.3
A Seasonal Climate Forecast Methodology for ITCZ-Associated Rainfall in Eastern Africa

9:20 AM
J3.4
Seasonal Forecasting of UK Winter Storminess
Steve E. George, University College London, Holmbury St. Mary, Surrey, United Kingdom; and M. A. Saunders

9:40 AM
J3.5
Application of Markov Chain Model to Long-Range Temperature Prediction
Stephen F. Mueller, Tennessee Valley Authority, Muscle Shoals, AL; and Q. Mao

10:00 AM
J3.6
Comparative assessment of predictability over mid-latitudinal and tropical climate using statistical models: Example over North Carolina and Indonesia
Orbita Roswintiarti, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and D. S. Niyogi and S. Raman

10:20 AM
J3.7
Altered data distributions conditioned on seasonal climate forecasts
Kelly T. Redmond, DRI, Reno, NV

10:40 AM
J3.8
A methodology for adjusting error estimates during disaggregation of seasonal forecasts
Jeanne M. Schneider, USDA-ARS, El Reno, OK

11:00 AM
J3.9
Disaggregation of the CPC seasonal outlooks
Daniel S. Wilks, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY

11:20 AM
J3.5x
Coffee Break

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 11 May 2000


Lunch

1:30 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 11 May 2000


Session 5
Forecast evaluation
Host: 15th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Organizer: Tom Hamill, NCAR
1:30 PM
5.1
The Representativeness of Computed Precipitation Skill Scores
Edward I. Tollerud, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO

1:50 PM
5.2
Confidence intervals for some verification measures - a survey of several methods
Tressa L. Kane, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown

2:10 PM
5.3
Application of the autologistic function with covariates to estimate an icing field
Greg S. Young, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown and J. A. Hoeting

2:30 PM
5.4
Verification of short-term forecasts from the Navy COAMPS over the Mediterranean
Jason E. Nachamkin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. M. Hodur

2:50 PM
5.5
Trends in skill of weather element forecasts in Canada
Richard Verret, EC/Canadian Meteorological Centre, Dorval, PQ, Canada; and G. Richard, G. Hardy, and C. Landry

3:10 PM
5.6
The NWS QPF Verification Program
Brett E. McDonald, NOAA/NWS/OM & UCAR/COMET, Camp Springs, MD; and T. M. Graziano

3:30 PM
5.7
Long-range forecast verification
Normand Gagnon, EC/Canadian Meteorological Centre, Dorval, PQ, Canada; and R. Verret, A. Plante, L. Lefaivre, and G. Richard

3:50 PM
5.8
Evaluation of probabilistic in-flight icing forecasts
Barbara G. Brown, NCAR, Boulder, CO

4:10 PM
5.9
Comparison of different scoring methods for TAFs and other probabilistic forecasts.
Glen R. Harris, UK Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom

4:30 PM
5.4x
Coffee Break

5:00 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 11 May 2000


Sessions end for the day

Friday, 12 May 2000

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8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Friday, 12 May 2000


Session 6
Probability and statistics in remote sensing
Host: 15th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Organizer: Doug Nychka, NCAR/GSP
8:00 AM
6.1
Results of a Stochastic Quality Assurance Algorithm for Radiation Budget Data
G. Louis Smith, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Hampton, VA; and T. Wong and K. A. Bush

8:20 AM
6.2
Regional Climatology and Statistics of Surface Radiation Budget
Anne C. Wilber, AS&M, Hampton, VA; and G. L. Smith and P. W. Stackhouse Jr.

8:40 AM
6.3
Optimal Blending of Land Surface Data Sets for Global Coverage
Alan Basist, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and S. Shen and C. Williams

9:00 AM
6.4
Spatial and temporal resolution and accuracy of meteorological parameters
G. Louis Smith, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Hampton, VA

9:20 AM
6.5
Assessing error in global atmospheric temperatures
John R. Christy, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and S. J. Brown

9:40 AM
6.6
Relationship of TRMM precipitation radar observations with TRMM-VISR and TMI observations
C. M. Kishtawal, Space Applications Center, Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India; and M. Tewari

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Friday, 12 May 2000


Coffee Break

10:30 AM-11:48 AM: Friday, 12 May 2000


Session 7
Ensemble Forecasting
Host: 15th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Organizer: Lawrence Wilson, AES
10:30 AM
7.1
On the Economic Value Of Ensemble Based Weather Forecasts
Zoltan Toth, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/GSC, Camp Springs, MD; and Y. Zhu and R. Wobus

10:50 AM
7.2
A method for recalibrating and combining ensemble forecasts
Simon J. Mason, SIO/UCSD, San Diego, CA; and N. E. Graham and J. S. Galpin

7.3
Evolution of Ensemble-based PDF of Initial States

7.4
A Hybrid Ensemble Kalman Filter / 3D-Variational Analysis Scheme

11:10 AM
7.5
Regime signatures in the phase-space tendencies and PDF of an AGCM
Judith Berner, NCAR, Boulder, CO and Univ. of Bonn, Bonn, Germany; and G. Branstator

11:30 AM
7.6
Simulation of Bay of Bengal cyclone tracks: a multimodel superensemble approach
Mukul Tewari, IBM India Research Laboratory, New Delhi, Delhi, India; and C. M. Kishtawal and P. K. Patra

11:50 AM-11:50 AM: Friday, 12 May 2000


1
Conference Ends

1:00 PM-1:00 PM: Friday, 12 May 2000


1
Guided Tour of the National Climatic Data Center
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