Session 4 Short-range forecasting

Wednesday, 10 May 2000: 10:40 AM-2:30 PM
Host: 15th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Organizer:
Dan Wilks, Cornell University, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Ithaca, NY

Papers:
10:40 AM
4.1
Developing local model output statistics (MOS) equations to predict temperature and probability of precipitation
Christopher T Collins, NOAA/NWS, Newport, NC

11:00 AM
4.2
AVN-Guided MOS Weather Forecasts for Europe Based on Regression Screening and Cross Validation
Christian Schoelzel, Bonn University, Bonn, Germany; and A. Hense and J. Klassen

11:20 AM
4.3
A Bayesian hierarchical approach to model output statistics
David J. Nott, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; and W. T. M. Dunsmuir, R. Kohn, and F. Woodcock

11:40 AM
4.4
Wind forecasts for the 2000 Olympic Games in Sydney with a Focus on Sydney Harbour
Elly Spark, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Sydney, NSW, Australia; and W. T. M. Dunsmuir and S. K. Kim

12:00 PM
4.5
Comparison of CART and MDA for statistical sky cover forecast Models
William R. Burrows, Meteorological Service of Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada; and L. J. Wilson

12:20 PM
4.6
Flexible discriminant techniques for forecasting clear-air turbulence
Claudia Tebaldi, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. Nychka, B. G. Brown, and R. Sharman

4.7
Conditional Tornado Probabilities from RUC-2 Forecasts

1:00 PM
4.4x
Lunch

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